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August 10, 2001
The weather in Ukraine has been favorable for winter wheat this season, but less than ideal for summer crops. July saw excessively hot conditions with below-normal precipitation in southern and eastern Ukraine, the country's key corn-production region. Maximum temperatures repeatedly approached 35 degrees Celsius throughout July. This likely resulted in significant stress to the corn crop, which was progressing through reproductive stage and vulnerable to high temperatures. The preceding three months were unusually wet and cool, and not conducive to the establishment of summer crops (chiefly corn, sunflowers, and sugar beets). As a result of the generally unfavorable weather, estimated Ukraine corn production for 2001/02 has been reduced from 3.3 to 2.8 million tons, against 3.8 million last year. Conditions have been similar in Russia's corn and sunflower region.
Winter wheat, meanwhile, benefited from the same weather that hampered corn and sunflower growth. Above-normal spring rainfall boosted yield potential in Ukraine and southern Russia, but likely reduced grain quality. The dry July weather provided ideal harvest conditions. According to harvest-progress reports, grain yield in Ukraine through early August, with harvest roughly two-thirds complete, were the highest in recent years.
USDA estimates 2001/02 Ukraine wheat production at 19.0 million tons, the largest since 1993. Estimated yield, however, stands at the fourth-lowest level of the past fifteen years, despite the strong year-to-year increase. Furthermore, grain quality has declined sharply during the past ten years. For example, during the "intensive technology" period between 1985 and 1990, when fertilizer and pesticide use was at its peak, roughly 70 percent of Ukrainian wheat was of milling quality (i.e., third class or above, with gluten content of 23 percent or higher.) In 2000/01, an estimated 23 percent of wheat output was milling grade, and the percentage is unlikely to increase this year due to abundant rain during May and June.
View current USDA estimates of grain production in the former Soviet Union.
For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0143.
