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August 20, 2001
A crop-assessment team from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service traveled in Romania and Bulgaria during the second week of August to assess the 2001/02 winter-crop harvest, summer crop conditions, and planting prospects for 2002/03 winter grains. The team conducted field travel and met with producers, seed companies, traders, researchers, government officials, and private industry representatives. Wheat and barley, two of the region's main crops, were harvested by late July, but the team observed sunflowers, cabbage, potatoes, grapes, tobacco, and soybeans in the fields.
Romania Summary:
The yields for 2001/02 winter wheat and barley crops were high, despite limited winter moisture. Barley area for 2001/02 is estimated at 0.5 million hectares ( MHa.) and production at 1.45 million tons (MT), up from a drought-reduced 0.8 MT. Sunflower area and production are estimated at 0.850 (0.855) MHa. and 0.95 (0.70) MT. While some corn fields in Dobrogea will produce nothing at all, most fields will produce at least a small yield. [See current USDA estimates of Romanian grain and oilseed production.]
Bulgaria Summary:
Bulgaria's 2001/02 winter grain harvest was relatively good. Area and production are estimated at 0.26 MHa. of barley (0.24 MHa.) and 0.75 (0.55) MT. The wheat crop is estimated at 1.1 (1.05) MHa. and 3.2 (2.65) MT. Summer crops in western growing regions of Bulgaria received more precipitation than in the eastern regions, and the higher yields in the west will compensate for lower yields elsewhere. Overall Bulgarian output will be about average. Total corn estimates are 0.34 (0.34) MHa. and 1.2 (0.75) MT. Sunflower area and production are estimated at 0.33 (0.45) MHa. and 0.4 (0.4) MT. [See current USDA estimates of Bulgarian grain and oilseed production.]
Romania Crop Travel:
The team first traveled through southern Romania along the Danube River Valley. This region, known as Walachia, has rich, black soils called chernozem. With the high-quality soil, the limiting factors for a prosperous crop here are just a lack of rain and a lack of inputs (fertilizer, pesticides, herbicides.) Traveling west of Bucharest, through Alexandria and to the south, and to Craiova and Slatina to the west, conditions were found to be very good, as expected. Alexandria often has some of the highest yields in the country and prospects this season are for a decent crop. A local farmer told the group that his 90-day corn was following a potato crop. Corn and sunflower were both seen to be doing well, but were growing in cracked, dry soil. Sunflowers were in various stages from full bloom to dry-down, and corn was in the late-milk to early-dent stage. The owner and creator of a rigged groundwater pump, converted from an old jeep, stated that the water table is much higher this season than last year. He was currently pumping ground water from 3-5 meters. Apparently, the primary region for the difference in crop stage in the west was the variability in planting dates.
The second day took the team east of Bucharest along the same fertile plain to Slobozia, then north to Brailia, and south along the east side of the Danube River to Constanza. The area immediately east of the capital city of Bucharest resembled the good fields seen to the west during the previous day. Near Slobozia, large corporate farms with access to capital were being irrigated and doing well. East of Slobozia, however, dryness suddenly increased. The far eastern region, located around the northern flowing section of the Danube River Delta, is known as Dobrogea. Dobrogea appears to be the region hit worst by dryness this year. Sunflowers were much further advanced here, with the vast majority in dry down stage, and sunflower heads were small. While much of the corn was very dry and showing burn-back, farmers likely will manage to get some crop (albeit small) at harvest. The more drought-tolerant sunflowers will produce seed, but yield will be low.
For some fortunate farmers, highly scattered showers will boost otherwise low yields in localized areas.
Constanza County, the extreme southeastern tip or Romania, normally receives roughly 300 millimeters (12 inches) of rain during a season, but this year has seen only 80 millimeters (about 3 inches). Ten years ago, over 400,000 hectares were irrigated in the county, but now only 20,000 ha. are irrigated. Irrigation is limited in Romania, as the country's previously massive irrigation system has been destroyed. Over the last ten years, above-ground irrigation troughs have fallen into disrepair and underground irrigation pipes have been dug up and sold as scrap metal in attempts to obtain cash. Deep plowing (20-25 cm.) is practiced to capture winter moisture for the dry summer period.
Dobrogea did relatively well last year while the rest of Eastern Europe was in the midst of a severe drought, but conditions are poor this season. Eastern Romanian farmers are very vocal about desires for government assistance. Constanza County grows 40 percent wheat or barley, 20 percent sunflowers, and 18 percent corn. In Constanza County, sunflower yield dropped from 1.5 MT/ha. last season to 0.5-0.7 MT/ha. this year. Barley is typically harvested around June18, but in this warm, dry year, the harvest occurred two weeks early. The same was true for wheat, with harvest was moved forward from July 8 to June 28. With little snow or rain since last September, wheat yield estimates in Dobrogea ran around 1.0 MT/ha.. In some areas along the eastern Romanian and Bulgarian coast, a frost in late May may have reduced wheat yields. Barley, planted a few weeks earlier than wheat, was past the flowering stage and escaped damage. Local farmers said that if no rain is received in September, fall crops will not be sown.
Bulgaria Crop Travel:
Northern Bulgaria's climate is similar to the bordering Romanian lowlands. As expected, field travel revealed similar weather patterns existed during the year, with similar consequences in Bulgaria as in Romania. The region most negatively affected in northern Bulgaria is the Dobrudza region (immediately south of Constanza County, Romania and located along the Black Sea Coast). This area, centered around the city of Dobrich, had a harsh summer with virtually no rainfall. Accustomed to the highest yields in the country (including last season when the rest of Bulgaria suffered from a severe drought), Dobrich's summer crop potential is very low this season. On average, Dobrich produces forty percent of Bulgaria's wheat output. This year, the crop managed to do well despite limited winter moisture. Like the adjacent coastal region in Romania, Dobrich produced a good wheat crop, yielding 4.0 MT/Ha., and a good barley crop at 4.0 MT/Ha. Summers, however, tend to be very dry, and in an area where the depth of groundwater can be as great as 250 meters, irrigation is not cost effective, and for a financially strapped country, often infeasible. Rain has not fallen since June, and corn yields are expected to reach only 1.0 MT/Ha. The summer heat and dryness stressed corn and sunflowers. Sunflowers, typically four feet tall by this date, were less than three feet tall and had developed prematurely to the dry-down stage. Incomplete pollination was evident as the middle third of the sunflower heads contained no seed. Sunflowerseed yield was often estimated as low as 0.5 MT/Ha.
Roughly two-thirds of corn area in Dobrich will produce no grain this year. Some corn in this region had already been cut for fodder after it failed to produce ears. In comparison, while a drought was stressing the whole of Eastern Europe last year, Dobrich produced average corn yields of 3.0 MT/Ha.. Fortunately, only ten percent of the country's corn is concentrated in the east, thus minimizing the effects of the devastating but localized drought in the east.
In Razgrad, west of Dobrich, conditions improved, although crop conditions vary greatly from field to field depending on the type of hybrid and the planting date. Razgrad expects yields of 2.5 MT/Ha. in corn this year, well above last year's 0.7 MT/Ha.
The north-central region of Bulgaria (a triangle within the cities of Rousse, Shoumen, and Veliko Turnovo) produces 55 percent of the country's sunflowerseed and corn. Soils are heavier, with higher moisture-holding capacity than in Dobrich. Wheat yield was an estimated 4.3 MT/Ha. Corn is estimated at 4.2 MT/Ha. In addition, some cornfields in this area have flood irrigation from nearby streams. These irrigated fields have yields as high as 7.0 MT/Ha. Around Pleven and westward, the situation is the best in the country with non-irrigated corn fields yielding 5.0 MT/Ha. and up.
From Bulgaria, the team traveled to Bosnia and Croatia, where they currently conducting crop-assessment travel. A full trip report will be published following completion of the tour.
For more information, please contact Bryan Purcell at (202) 690-0138 or Mark Lindeman at (202) 690-0143.
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