Australia: Dryness Prevails in Queensland 

July 25, 2001

Summary: Two of Australia wheat producing states, Queensland and Western Australia, continue to experience dry conditions in the winter (southern hemisphere) growing season. Queensland's cumulative precipitation for this season is the lowest in several years.  Satellite imagery also supports the meteorological data indicating persistent dryness.  Satellite derived vegetation index maps indicate poorer conditions and or reduced area this growing season as compared to previous seasons.

(Go to Data and Graphics supporting this crop condition assessment)

Queensland 2001/02 Season Conditions:
Analysis of the rainfall amounts and distribution for the winter growing season to date reveals a shortfall significantly below long-term normal levels.  This season has experienced the lowest rainfall amount of the previous six years.  The dry start to the season may hamper yield prospects, as well as reducing area planted to grains this season.  However, rainfall during the critical grain formation period of August and September will be the final determinant of Queensland production.  From April 15 (approximate season start) through late July 2001, key winter-crop growing regions received only 21 percent of normal rainfall.  Conditions have remained mostly dry since May 1 with insignificant amounts of rainfall. 

As illustrated in the above "Percent of Normal Precipitation Map" from the Climate Prediction Center, Queensland (like other Australian states) experienced a very uneven distribution of rainfall during the month of June.  Furthermore, nearly all of Queensland's rainfall occurred in the normally dry outback area to the west of the crop area. 

Average temperature in the region tended to be above normal thus far in the growing season.  This will likely further reduce yield potential.  

A year-to-year comparison of maximum vegetation indices as measured for the entire month of June show that either Queensland vegetation conditions are poorer or area under cultivation is less than that for the 2000/02 season.  Both conditions could also be occurring.

Data Sources for this Report:
Australia Bureau of Resource Economics (ABARE)
FAS- PECAD analysis and mapping of meteorological data
FAS  PECAD analysis and mapping of remote sensing data and GIS products
World Meteorological Organization – Weather Station Observations
US Air force Computer Simulated Weather Data
UN FAO GIEWS SPOT Vegetation Products

For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, Center for Remote Sensing Analysis at (202) 690-0135.