July 30, 2001

Montana Crop Condition Update - July 2001

Special Report: Montana Crop Conditions

Summary:
Montana crops are in worse condition than seen in recent years due to multi-year drought.  Winter and spring wheat crops struggled through germination and establishment due to very dry soils. Analysis of satellite imagery and other information show that although there is greater vegetation this year than last year in some areas of the state, such is not the case in the historically high crop producing counties. 

Recent Rainfall:
Precipitation across Montana was well below normal during the first half of 2001.  This dry spell followed the very dry 2000 growing season.  A precipitation graph for Hill Co., Montana shows rainfall to be much below normal from January through May across the high spring wheat producing counties of northern Montana.  A precipitation graph for Dawson Co., Montana illustrates how much drier this year is than last year. While a statewide increase in precipitation in June and July 2001 helped halt the deterioration of crop conditions, the earlier damage has resulted in poorer winter and spring grain conditions than in recent years.

Crop Conditions:
Crop development progress is ahead of the five-year average, and on par with last year at this time, according to USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). As of July 22, NASS showed 98 percent of Montana's current spring wheat crop in the heading or beyond stage, whereas last year on this date 92 percent of the crop was headed.  The  five-year average is 90 percent. On July 22, 16 percent of Montana's winter wheat was harvested, according to NASS.  Last year on July 22, 15 percent was harvested; 6 percent is the five-year average. Spring wheat crop condition was rated as 12 percent excellent, 34 percent good, 20 percent fair, 12 percent poor, and 22 percent very poor. Pastures and rangeland in Montana were rated similarly as "poor." On July 22, NASS ratings for pastures and rangeland were 5 percent excellent, 20 percent good, 34 percent fair, 25 percent poor, and 16 percent very poor.

Imagery:
Slide 1 shows  Vegetative Index (VIN) maps from the first 15 days of July, comparing 2000 and 2001 vegetation. From the 2001 map it can be seen that north central Montana has much less vegetation this year than last year.  Historically, these are the high-producing wheat counties. Secondly, it is evident that this year eastern Montana, particularly east central Montana is greener than last year as of early July. However, spring wheat and winter wheat production maps illustrate that east central Montana historically produces less wheat than the northern counties.

Slide 2 is a comparison of two Landsat TM images from Hill Co., Montana, at the Fresno Reservoir. The images are from July 2, 2001 and June 21, 2000. Water levels of the reservoir are down this year compared to last. The light red and pink fields on this year's image are poor condition winter and spring wheat fields. The full bright red tones on last year's image indicate the much better wheat condition a that time.  

Slide 3 is a Landsat TM scene from May 7, 2001, of Hill Co., Montana, showing an area from the Fresno Reservoir to Havre. The pink fields are poorly established winter wheat; the gray fields are recently worked fields, mostly planted to spring wheat. The dark green fields are likely enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program, or are fields with last year's stubble. A few of the winter wheat fields are labeled to help with crop identification.

Slide 4 is a Landsat TM scene from June 8, 2001, of Hill Co., Montana, showing the same area from the Fresno Reservoir to Havre. The pink fields are poorly established winter and spring wheat fields. Some of the better winter wheat and spring wheat fields are brighter red, but they are few in number.  Again, a few of the winter wheat and spring wheat fields are labeled to help with crop identification. 

Slide 5 is a Landsat TM scene from July 2, 2001, of Hill Co., Montana, showing the same area from the Fresno Reservoir to Havre. More red fields are now visible, showing some improvement in crop condition. But crops are still in poorer condition than recent years as evidenced by the VIN comparisons (Slide 1) and the year to year comparison (slide 2). 

For more information, contact Carl Gernazio of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division at 202-690-0136 or by e-mail at gernazio@fas.usda.gov.