July 12, 2001

Indian Monsoon Leaves Southeast Dry

Summary
The southwest monsoon, which provides 80 percent of India’s annual precipitation and is critical to the development of its major crops (rice, coarse grains, cotton, peanuts, soybeans), has weakened over the southeast area of the subcontinent.  After an excellent mid-June performance, monsoon activity dwindled in central and peninsular India during the week ending June 27.  The areas most affected are southern growing areas of rice, cotton, and groundnuts.  However, excellent growing conditions in other producing regions are expected mostly offset the effects of this dryness.

Major Areas of Concern
Most major crops have receive beneficial rainfall amounts so far, however southern cotton and peanut growing areas are now showing a rainfall deficit.  The final outcome of this year’s Kharif (fall-harvested) crops will largely depend on rainfall distribution during the second half of August and September. The normal withdrawal date of the south-west monsoon is late September for most regions.
 

Monsoon Coverage and Rice Crop Production Regions
The rice map illustrates relative share (by area) of Kharif rice by weather subdivisions.  Most rice growing regions have received normal or above-normal rain, which is aiding germination.

Monsoon Performance Update: Week Ending June 27
For the week of June 27 the monsoon brought light to no rainfall over much of the southern portion of the continent.  However, overall the monsoon rainfall is satisfactory for most regions except dry areas in the southeast (see the longer term graphic below)

Official IMD data shows only 12 of the 35 weather subdivisions received normal or above normal rainfall For the week ending June 27, compared with 26 the previous week.  The Gangetic plain, however, received copious rains.   Cumulative rainfall for June 1 to June 27 was normal or above normal in 29 of the 35 weather subdivisions, compared with 26 during the corresponding period of last year.  The deficient regions are Tamil Nadu, Raylaseema, North Interior Karnataka, and several northeastern states.  The excellent start of the monsoon in late May and early June did however aid in tillage and planting operations. 

Beneficial rains continued to fall in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, helping to alleviate drought in this region and ensuring the kharif cotton and groundnut crops will rebound this season after two years of very dry conditions.    

More Information and on the Southwest Monsoon | top of page

Monsoon Background
The southwest monsoon typically enters the mainland over Kerala in the first week of June, moving  northward to cover the whole of India by mid-July. It starts withdrawing in mid-September. A successful southwest monsoon is crucial to the development of Indian agricultural production. It provides 80 percent of India's total precipitation and is critical to the development of major food and commercial crops, such as rice, coarse grains, pulses, peanuts, soybeans, and cotton. Planting of the largely rainfed Kharif (monsoon season) crops, which include rice, sorghum, corn, millet, peanut, soybeans, and cotton, begins after the monsoon firmly establishes itself. Planting continues through July and early August. Farmers in the northern rice surplus states of Punjab and Haryana, where irrigation is available, often complete rice transplanting prior to the monsoon arrival.. This season's pre-monsoon or early season rains in central, south, and east India should provide a favorable early season planting conditions for rice, soybeans, sorghum, and corn. 

Data and reporting provided by India Meteorological Department and USDA-FAS Agricultural Counselor's office in New Delhi, India. FAS-PECAD uses GIS technology to convert tabular IMD rainfall data into map images.

For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0135 or by e-mail at crutchfieldj@fas.usda.gov.