June 29, 2001

Indian Monsoon Arrives About 10 Days Early, 
Bringing Relief to Parched Areas of Western India

Data and reporting provided by India Meteorological Department 
and USDA-FAS Agricultural Counselor's office in New Delhi, India.

The southwest monsoon, which provides 80 percent of India’s annual precipitation and is critical to the development of its major crops (rice, coarse grains, cotton, peanuts, soybeans), continues to run a week to 10 days ahead of normal.  By June 18, it had covered most of India except parts of the northwest.  Good soil moisture is aiding tillage and planting operations. Heavy rains in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, have alleviated drought in this region.  

Based on its climatic model, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is forecasting the fourteenth consecutive "normal" monsoon.  Ten of the sixteen parameters influencing the monsoon are reported to be favorable.  The monsoon is considered normal if rainfall during June 1 to September 30 is within 10 percent of the long period average (LPA) of 88 cm.  (35 inches).  This year’s monsoon precipitation is predicted to be 98 percent plus or minus 4 percent.  IMD forecasts monsoon rainfall at 100 percent of the LPA (64 cm) in northwest India, 96 percent of the LPA (87 cm) over peninsular India and 100 percent of the LPA (127 cm) in northeast India, subject to a forecasting error of plus or minus 8 percent.

June 1 to June 14 Monsoon Performance Update
The southwest monsoon arrived about ten days early, bringing relief to parched areas of western India.

Major Areas of Concern
Most major crops have receive beneficial rainfall amounts so far.  There are currently no major areas of concern.  The final outcome of this year’s Kharif (fall-harvested) crops will largely depend on rainfall distribution during the second half of August and September. The normal withdrawal date of the south-west monsoon is late September for most regions. 

Monsoon Coverage and Rice Crop Production Regions
The rice map illustrates relative share (by area) of Kharif rice by weather subdivisions.  Most rice growing regions have received normal or above-normal rain, which is aiding tillage and planting operations.

More Information and on the Southwest Monsoon | top of page

Monsoon Background
The southwest monsoon typically enters the mainland over Kerala in the first week of June, moving  northward to cover the whole of India by mid-July. It starts withdrawing from mid-September. The southwest monsoon is critical to the development of Indian agricultural production. It provides 80 percent of India's total precipitation and is critical to the development of major food and commercial crops, such as rice, coarse grains, pulses, peanuts, soybeans, and cotton. Planting of the largely rainfed Kharif (monsoon season) crops, which include rice, sorghum, corn, millet, peanut, soybeans, and cotton, will begin after the monsoon firmly establishes itself over the major producing states.  Planting continues through July and early August. Farmers in the northern rice surplus states of Punjab and Haryana, where irrigation is available, often complete rice transplanting prior to the monsoon arrival.. This season's pre-monsoon or early season rains in central, south, and east India should provide a favorable early season planting conditions for rice, soybeans, sorghum, and corn. The country's economy is to a large extent dependent on monsoon rains.

For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0135 or by e-mail at crutchfieldj@fas.usda.gov.