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May 2, 2001
North Korea is experiencing unusually dry weather this spring. Current prospects for the 2001/02 crop season are fair to poor. More rain is needed very soon to prevent sharp yield losses for winter wheat and support the timely planting and germination of summer crops (spring wheat, rice, corn, and potatoes).
The weather was unfavorably dry from late September through mid-October 2000, the planting season for North Korea's 2001/02 winter crops. Temperatures and precipitation in November and December 2000 were close to normal, but the weather in January 2001 was unusually severe. Temperatures dropped to the lowest level since 1994 (-37 C.) and the average monthly temperature for January was the lowest since 1949. In addition, very heavy snow (400 to 500 percent above normal) was recorded in many areas. Although a burden on the population, the snow provided needed moisture and may have protected winter crops from the extreme cold. The weather turned milder in February, with normal to above-normal temperatures and moderate precipitation creating favorable conditions for emerging winter wheat and boosting moisture for spring planting. Since mid-March, however, the weather in North Korea has been unseasonably warm and dry. A spring drought has developed which shows no sign of ending soon.
Current conditions
The current dry and warm weather is unfavorable for winter crops, now in the vegetative to reproductive stages. Yields are likely to drop below normal due to the lack of timely rainfall this spring. The planting of summer grains (potatoes, spring wheat, corn) has started and will continue through May, although germination will probably be delayed due to low soil moisture levels. Rice seedlings will be transplanted in June, but irrigation supplies were greatly depleted following last year's summer drought and may be insufficient in some areas. Above-normal rainfall will be needed within the next few weeks to prevent another year of low yields.
The first USDA production estimate for North Korea's 2001/02 grain crops (excluding rice) will be released in May 2001.
Precipitation was near to above-normal from January through early March, 2001, but it has been mostly dry for the last 45 days. Cumulative precipitation is now less than 50 percent of normal for the season. In 2000, dry weather in March and April was followed by favorable rainfall in May, which boosted moisture levels for planting. Unfortunately, the return of dry weather in June and July 2000 had a significant negative impact on crop yields. Total grain production dropped to an estimated 2.85 million tons in 2000/01, the smallest crop on record. (See North Korea Grain Update - December 2000)
Precipitation
| Graph 1 - Precipitation from April 1 through 29 was less than 20 percent of normal |
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| Graph 2 - Northwest - near the China border. Major corn and rice area. |
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| Graph 3 - East - narrow coastal plain. Minor grain production area. |
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| Graph 4 - Central - near Pyongyang |
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| Graph 5 - Southwest - near the South Korea border |
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Temperature
| Temperatures were below normal in January 2001, but since February they have averaged 1 to 3 C. above normal. |
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For more information, contact Paulette Sandene with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0133.
