China Wheat Update

Yield prospects for China's 2001/02 winter wheat crop have declined over the past 50 days, as unusually hot and dry weather dominated the North China Plain. Soil moisture has been seriously depleted in parts of the region, and growing conditions have been stressful for the crop, which is now in the filling to maturing stage of development. Crop calendar - May 20, 2001

Harvesting is already underway in central China and southern sections of the North China Plain, although the bulk of the harvest will take place in early June. The weather in Northeast China was also warmer and drier than normal this spring, which may have delayed or prevented proper germination of the spring wheat crop.

The weather for China’s 2001/02 winter wheat crop was generally favorable through March 2001. Normal to above-normal precipitation and seasonable temperatures at planting provided adequate moisture for germination and tillering. Above-normal precipitation in January, February and early March boosted soil moisture and irrigation supplies. Warm temperatures in March promoted rapid growth, and total soil moisture remained adequate for vegetative wheat throughout the month.

The situation declined in April as a dry weather pattern developed over the region. Moderate to heavy rain in late April provided some relief, especially in Shandong and Hebei, but Henan and Shanxi provinces remained dry throughout the period. Anhui and Jiangsu had mostly dry weather in May, but soil moisture remained adequate due to good rainfall in March and April.

Temperatures have been very warm (3 - 6 C. above normal) in May, reaching to the upper 30's C over a large area. The heat increased the impact of dry conditions on the wheat crop and increased irrigation demands.

The weather was also drier and warmer than normal this spring in the Northeast, particularly Liaoning and Jilin Provinces, where there were reports of planting delays and slow germination. In Heilongjiang, scattered showers in May provided beneficial moisture, but more rain is needed in other spring wheat production areas.

Henan Province - Rainfall since April 1 only 20 percent of normal.

Hebei Province - Normal rainfall in April but mostly dry since May 1.

Shandong Province - Rain in late-April, otherwise completely dry.

Anhui/Jiangsu Provinces - Normal rainfall in April, dry weather in May.

Winter wheat accounts for 90 - 91 percent of China's total wheat crop. The main production areas are the North China Plain and Sichuan, but it is also grown in the Yangtze River valley and parts of western China. Spring wheat is grown primarily in Northeast China [Area map]. The current USDA estimate for China's 2001/02 wheat crop is 104.0 million tons, up 2.0 million from last year's drought-impacted crop. Planted area is estimated at 26.0 million tons, down 1.0 million from last year.

According to Chinese government officials, winter wheat area declined for the fourth consecutive year in 2001/02 due to low wheat prices, rising production costs (especially for irrigation) and higher profits from alternative crops. Spring wheat area has been declining for several years due primarily to low prices.

For more information, contact Paulette Sandene with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0133.


Updated: September 05, 2003	Write us: Pecadinfo@fas.usda.gov	Index \| \| FAS Home \| USDA \|

China Winter Wheat Update - May 2001