April 10, 2001

Summer Cotton Planted Area in Mexico Likely to
Remain Low in 2001/02

Summary:
Cotton planted area in Mexico declined through most of the 1990's, and current conditions indicate there will be no major reversal of that trend this year. Likely water shortages in major cotton areas is one of several reasons planted area may be at or below 2000/01 levels. Unattractive world market prices and reported producer dissatisfaction with the cotton policies of the Government of Mexico may also dampen chances for a rebound in cotton area.

Limited Moisture (again):
Most producers in the northernmost states begin planting in earnest in March/April, and must rely upon wells and reservoirs to irrigate their fields. Tropical storms are the main source of water for Mexican reservoirs, but the late 1990's saw declines in this rainfall. Consequently, reservoir levels dropped dramatically, and cotton area fell. While timely rainfall in autumn 2000 aided winter grain development, reservoir levels were not significantly improved. Producers entered the 2001 planting season with little surface soil moisture, so irrigation must supply all the moisture necessary for seed germination and plant emergence.

Weather and Irrigation Uncertainties:
The National Water Commission regulates the amount of water released from reservoirs. Prior to planting, producers are notified how much water will be released, so that they can plan accordingly. The first water release of the summer season is usually timed to support seed germination, with a second release timed to support blooming, a period of high moisture demand for cotton. However, there is perennial difficulty in matching area planted to summer crops in the northwest to the volume of water released by the National Water Commission. Hot, dry days in April and May often sap moisture from both the soil and reservoirs, resulting in increased irrigation demands while supplies dwindle.

Area Fluctuations:
The summer crop provides the lion’s share of Mexico’s annual cotton output. The major producing area is northern Mexico, but the amount of land devoted to cotton has fluctuated since the mid-1990's. Baja California, Chihuahua, and Sonora usually lead the country in area planted to summer cotton, with over 95 percent of that area being irrigated in 1995-98. A similar pattern is expected to continue in 2001.

USDA Cotton Estimates For Mexico 1990/01 Through 2000/01

On July 11, the USDA will release its initial estimates of world cotton production for 2001/02.

For more information, contact Ron White with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0137.