April 13, 2001

China Winter Wheat Update - April 2001

Summary

Yield prospects are favorable for China's 2001/02 winter wheat crop, which is now in the jointing to heading stage (Crop calendar). Soil moisture levels are adequate to abundant across the North China Plain following unusually heavy precipitation in late winter and early spring. March weather was warmer and drier than normal, which encouraged rapid crop development. In April, scattered showers brought favorable moisture to western and southern parts of the North China Plain, although eastern areas remained dry. Assuming normal weather from April through June, 2001/02 winter wheat yields will likely be higher than last year, when a significant drought reduced yield in several provinces.

Area Expected to Decline in 2001/02

Winter wheat accounts for 90 - 91 percent of China's total wheat crop. The main production areas are the North China Plain and Sichuan Province, but it is also grown in the Yangtze River valley and parts of western China (Area map). Spring wheat is mainly grown in Northeast China. According to Chinese government officials, winter wheat area declined for the fourth consecutive year in 2001/02, due mainly to low wheat prices, rising production costs (especially for irrigation) and higher profits from alternative crops. The latest government planting survey indicated that wheat area for 2001/02 may have dropped 4 to 5 percent below last year. Spring wheat area is also expected to continue its downward trend in 2001/02.

In 2000/01, China produced an estimated 102.0 million tons of wheat from 27.0 million hectares. The estimated yield of 3.78 tons per hectare was close to the 5-year average but lower than the previous year. The first USDA estimate for China's 2001/02 wheat crop will be released on May 10.

Favorable Weather Through Early April

China’s 2001/02 winter wheat crop was planted in September/October 2000. Normal to above-normal precipitation provided favorable moisture for germination and tillering. Temperatures were seasonable to cool across the region, and the crop entered dormancy in November/December 2000 in generally good condition. Moderate to heavy rain and snow spread across the North China Plain and central China in January and February 2001, boosting soil moisture and irrigation supplies for China’s winter wheat crop as it emerged from dormancy.

Three-Month Precipitation - December 1, 2000 through February 28, 2001

Three-Month Percent Normal Precipitation - December 1, 2000 through February 28, 2001

Rainfall diminished across northern China in March and temperatures averaged 1^o to 3^o C above normal for the month. The mild weather promoted rapid growth, and satellite imagery showed the crop in good condition [March 28, 2001]. Topsoil moisture declined throughout March, but total moisture remained adequate for vegetative wheat. Beneficial showers were reported in western and southern parts of the North China Plain in early April, although Shandong province remained dry.

March Rainfall - March 1 through 31, 2001

April Rainfall - April 1 through 10, 2001

Soil moisture models show that most of the North China Plain currently has adequate moisture reserves, although northern parts of Hebei and Shanxi provinces are unfavorably dry. The situation, however, is better than last year, when moisture levels were much lower across the region. The greatest need for rainfall and supplemental irrigation will be from mid-April through the first week of May, when most of the crop on the North China Plain is at the drought-sensitive heading stage. The amount and distribution of rainfall over the next 4 weeks will be critical for the 2001/02 winter wheat crop.

Soil Moisture - April 10, 2001

Soil Moisture - April 10, 2000

Precipitation Graphs - North China Plain

Hebei is the driest province on the North China Plain - most wheat fields require supplemental irrigation. Heavy snow in January and February protected wheat from very cold winter temperatures. March was unusually warm and dry. April showers increased soil moisture levels and favored jointing crops.

Shandong had wet weather in January, which provided beneficial moisture for dormant winter wheat. Precipitation in February and March was close to normal. April rainfall is very light, and soil moisture levels have declined. More rain is needed for wheat, now at the jointing stage.

Precipitation in January and February was more than 3X normal in Henan. Warm and drier weather in March and April favored crop development. Soil moisture is still adequate, but the crop is now entering the heading stage and more rain will be needed this month. In 2000, wheat yields were reduced by drought. Late-season rainfall in 1999 overcame a winter drought and resulted in higher-than-expected yields.

Anhui and Jiangsu provinces were unusually wet in January and February. Scattered showers in March and April kept soil moisture levels high. In 2000, an extended spring drought lowered wheat yields and hindered summer crop planting.

Previous Reports

China Wheat Update - December 2000

China Winter Wheat Update - February 2001

For more information, contact Paulette Sandene with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0133.