March 23, 2001

Flooding in Mozambique Has Minor Impact on Grain Production

Summary
Continuous heavy rainfall in February and early-March, 2001 led to serious flooding in Zambezia, Sofala, Manica and Tete provinces in central Mozambique [Political Map]. Transportation infrastructure suffered serious damage, and access to the major cities of Maputo and Beira was interrupted. Preliminary government assessments in late February indicated that 27,000 hectares of cash and foodcrops had been lost, mostly in Zambezia Province [FAO - Foodcrops and Shortages Report #1, March 2001]. Despite these losses, the impact on national grain production will be minor. Grain output in 2000/01 is expected to be higher than last year due to increased planted area and favorable rainfall in major production areas. However, yield prospects could deteriorate if excessive rainfall persists through the remainder of the growing season.

Heavy Rains Occur Away from Last Year's Flood Zone:
A stationary weather system brought unusually heavy and persistent rainfall to Mozambique in 2001. As shown by the following maps, the heaviest rainfall was concentrated in the center of the country, an important sorghum and millet production area.

Total rainfall for February 2001 was more than 200 percent above normal in central and eastern Mozambique as well as adjacent parts of Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Zambia [Rainfall Map]. The heavy rain led to flooding on the Zambezi, Save, Pungue, and other rivers and streams in the region. At the height of the flooding, places on the Zambezi River reportedly widened to 20 miles.

The weather in other parts of Mozambique has been more favorable this year. In the north, above-normal rainfall during February and March benefited the corn crop, which had suffered from drought in 2000. In southern Mozambique, rainfall totals have been closer to normal and crop conditions are better than last year, when the area was hit by devastating typhoons and widespread flooding.

Drier weather in early March has favored summer crop maturing and harvesting, which will be starting soon. The drier conditions have also reduced the chances for more flooding and aided recovery efforts, but water levels in rivers and reservoirs are still dangerously high.

Production Prospects Higher Than Last Year:
The current 2000/01 production estimate for total grain (corn, millet, milled rice, and sorghum) is 1.6 million tons, up 12 percent from last year's poor crop [Grain Production Table]. Corn production is expected to increase by about 10 percent in 2000/01 due to higher planted area and near-normal yields. Production of sorghum and millet is also forecast to increase in 2000/01 after dropping sharply last year due to widespread drought, followed by floods. An average rice crop is forecast for 2000/01.

The worst flooding in February/March 2001 occurred in central Mozambique, where cassava, sorghum, millet, and rice are the main crops. The most important corn-producing provinces lie outside the flooded area. Southern Mozambique, hit hard by flooding in 2000, escaped damage this year.

Satellite Imagery:
Low-resolution AVHRR imagery dated March 6, 2001 clearly shows signs of flooding along the Zambezi River and near the port city of Beira. On the images, vegetation is shown in shades of red and clouds appear white. Light blue represents water with a high concentration of silt and debris, indicating that flooding has occurred. Black areas are standing water.

(Select from the map below)

For more information, contact Paulette Sandene with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division at (202) 690-0133.