December 14, 2000

Eastern Europe: Southern Regions Face Problems

With Proper Winter Grain Establishment

Southeastern Europe continues under a long term moisture deficit as drought conditions, which have been plaguing the region since late last winter, continue. The drought remains centered on the Balkans, keeping Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia and Serbia, including its fertile northern region of Vojvodina, all well below normal in precipitation for the months of October and November. Subsoil moistures levels for the fall of 2000 remain critically low. Further north, above the Carpathian Mountains, near-normal winter grain emergence and growth has taken place in most areas. Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, have seen this season progress in a more typical fashion, as precipitation has been more regular and normal since September than in the Balkan region.

Showers did occur during September throughout much of the Balkans, allowing germination to begin and early plant development to take place. For this reason, the topsoil moisture or surface soil moisture levels appear significantly more beneficial than the subsoil does. More significant rains, however will be needed to replenish total moisture reserves, which have been depleted during course of the dry year. As winter is about to get underway, conditions in southeastern Europe for over- wintering are not as good as desired. Across all of eastern Europe temperatures have remained above average, so autumn sown grain has rapidly advanced through emergence and development, but the warmth has prevented proper winter hardening. Additionally, with the combination of a lack of rainfall and a shortage of capital, planting has been delayed in many regions, often past the optimal planting time. A look at the satellite composite vegetation index of eastern Europe for fall emergence shows a lower level of plant vigor for 2000 when compared with the same period last year. This is especially evident in Romania and Bulgaria. The relatively low values in both the 2000 and 1999 image are typical for fall emergence, as opposed to the much higher values recorded in summer during peak reflectance.

View past surface soil moisture levels on 17 October 2000 and 17 October 1999

Current weather in eastern Europe

For more information, please contact Bryan Purcell with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0138. email: purcellb@fas.usda.gov