November 14, 2000

South Africa Corn Prospects for 2000/01

South Africa’s 2000/01 corn crop, now being planted, is estimated at 8.5 million tons, down 20 percent from last year’s bumper crop. Widespread showers and mild temperatures have created very good planting conditions, but production is expected to decline due to lower forecast area and a return to average yields.

Area forecast to drop in 2000

Planted area for 2000/01 is estimated at 3.4 million hectares, down 12 percent from last year. An estimated 2.75 million hectares will be planted by the commercial sector, while corn area in the developing sector is estimated at 675,000 hectares. According to the September planting intentions survey by the National Crop Estimates Committee (NCEC), commercial corn area was forecast to drop to 2.47 million hectares, down 24 percent from last year and the lowest level in more than 20 years. [Corn Area]

An unusually large crop of 10.6 million tons in 1999/00 resulted in large stocks and falling prices, which encouraged farmers to reduce corn area for 2000/01 and shift to crops such as sunflowers, peanuts, and soybeans. [Crop Area]

Credit problems and higher fuel costs also played a role in this area shift. However, a number of cooperatives and farm organizations in South Africa suggest that the excellent planting weather and a recent rise in corn prices may induce farmers to plant more corn than domestic forecasters had initially expected. Planting is underway and should be finished by the end of December in eastern crop areas. In western areas, planting can extend into mid-January.

[Crop Calendar Chart]

The next official planting intentions report will be released on November 20.

Favorable planting weather

The weather through October 31 has been favorable for corn planting. Moderate to heavy rain covered the corn belt in October, providing abundant moisture for summer crop germination and vegetative growth. [Rainfall Map]

The moisture was especially beneficial in the important white corn production areas of the northwest, which is normally the driest part of the corn belt. Above-normal temperatures (highs in the lower to middle 30's C) in October warmed topsoils for summer crop germination. The short-range forecast calls for additional rain and near-normal temperatures over most crop areas in early November. The long-range forecast by the South Africa Weather Bureau predicts near-normal rainfall for November in eastern crop areas and above-normal rainfall elsewhere in South Africa. Temperatures over western South Africa are expected to be near-normal to above normal, with cooler temperatures in the east. [Rainfall Map]

For more information, contact Paulette Sandene with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0133.