Australia Wheat Production Forecast Lowered

Queensland: A done deal
Queensland's grain harvest is well underway and lower yields are being reported as a result of continued dryness and above average temperatures throughout the state for much of the growing season. This applies to the northern New South Wales growing areas as well this season.

Western Australia: No rain, no grain
Looking to the far west, Western Australia experienced a dry late April and early May. This significantly delayed planting throughout the state. With this one strike against it already, the region weathered several weeks of below average rainfall. In recent weeks rainfall amounts have been nearly zero in some areas. During the month of October the severity and extent of dryness in Western Australia has dramatically increased and will result in substantial yield reductions this season. Harvest has begun in northern parts of the WA grain belt, as the dry conditions have prompted early grain ripening for the crop that had survived. Western Australian satellite image acquired during flowering or peak greenness substantiates the reduced yields of Western Australia revealing poor crop establishment and growth throughout the region.

Potential Locust Damage:
The Australia Plague Locust Commission continues to forecast a high probability of locust attacks this spring for many growing regions. The threat to Western Australia is the most severe, though has been somewhat abated by the extreme dryness which has slowed the locust populations' growth rate.

The Rest of Grain Belt fares better:
South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales, the south-east Australian grain regions, have experience favorable weather this season. With some areas of South Australia having the best season in several years. Victoria satellite image acquired during flowering or peak greenness substantiate better conditions this season as compare to 1998. In 2000 many fields have been planted, many with winter grains, and crop health in individual fields appears good.

In Summary:
Most of the south-east Australia grain regions have experience favorable weather this season sustaining average to above-average yields as compared to the five year averages. However, Western Australia's dry conditions will significantly impact Australia's total grain production this season. Lower yields in the biggest grain producing state will lead to substantial production decrease this season. The current forecast is 11.7 million hectares of harvested area and a total Australia wheat production of 20 million tons. Barley production is estimated at 5.4 million tons.

Australia Wheat Background Information

Australia Wheat and Climate
Wheat is Australia’s most important crop having a seasonal gross value approaching three billion Australian dollars. Australian wheat is a major competitor of US wheat exports. Australian wheat is grown as a ‘winter’ crop (autumn-winter-spring), often in rotation with some form of pasture. Wheat production is concentrated on the mainland in a narrow crescent know as the wheat belt, which receives approximately 400 to 600 mm average annual rainfall. Areas with less than 40cm per year are too dry to support winter grains, and areas receiving greater than 60 cm develop pest and disease problems in winter grains. The eastern portion of the wheat belt stretches in a curve, inland of the dividing range, from central Queensland through New South Wales, Victoria, and southern South Australia. The western portion of the wheat belt continues around the south west area of Western Australia. The acreage planted to wheat during recent season has averaged 11 million hectares producing 19 million tons. Much of the wheat growing region is in sub-humid and semi-arid zones. This region has large areas of red-brown and black soils that are less leached and more fertile. Interestingly, Australian soil generally does not show a consistent correlation with climate, mainly because of the persistence in certain regions of leached soils formed in ancient wetter climatic conditions. The remaining portion of the wheat belt is in the higher-rainfall areas. These soils are low fertility, often needing trace elements as well as phosphorus, nitrogen, and sulfur. Artificial fertilizers can allow these soils to support highly productive pastures which have potential for mixed farming. In general, the Australian wheat, and other major crops (with the exception of sugarcane) are grown between the two extreme climatic zones. The interior edge of the agricultural crescent is formed by the exceptionally dry and erratic precipitation pattern of the interior, and the geographical outer edge of the wheat belt crescent is created by the excessive moisture of the coastal climate. Winter rains over this narrow belt can be highly variable though in most years provides the needed moisture levels for crop growth. Virtually all of Australia wheat is rainfed. Irrigation is applied to higher value crops such as cotton and rice.

For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0135 or by e-mail at crutchfieldj@fas.usda.gov.


Updated: September 05, 2003	Write us: Pecadinfo@fas.usda.gov	Index \| \| FAS Home \| USDA \|