October 25, 2000

Rain Benefits Kansas Winter Wheat Establishment

Prior to planting and establishment of the 2000/01 winter wheat crop in the southern plains, states have suffered through "drought" conditions. Over the next several days, the FSA - FAS Center for Remote Sensing Analysis will be publishing observations on winter wheat establishment across Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas. The first state highlighted is Kansas.

Analysis of satellite images through October 20, 2000 indicates that the region is must less "green" than it was at this same time in October 1999. Included is a "Vegetation Index Comparison" of the region for October 1 - 15, comparing 1999 to 2000. This information correlates well with the "Pasture and Range" condition report released on October 23, 2000 by USDA NASS. According to this report, as of October 22, 66 percent of Kansas range and pastures are in poor-to-very poor condition. In Nebraska, 86 percent of range and pastures are in poor-to-very poor condition and in Colorado 58 percent. Oklahoma pastures and ranges are rated 62 percent poor-to-very poor and 67 percent of the Texas' pastures and ranges are rated poor-to-very poor.

During August and September 2000, precipitation was generally below normal and in large areas, non-existent across Kansas, especially in southern and western counties. This combined with above-normal temperatures to deplete moisture in the surface soil layers, not a condition favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Significant rain finally reached across Kansas during October 22 - 24, and is well in time to benefit winter wheat establishment. Wichita received more than 1 inch of rainfall between October 22 and 23, Goodland received .87 of an inch and Russell received .77 of an inch. Unfortunately, southwest Kansas did not receive as much rain so far. Garden City received only about one quarter of an inch between October 22 and 23, and Dodge City received about one-half of an inch. As of this writing, "locally heavy rain continues over the hard red winter wheat belt."

Soil moisture models and weather station database are used to help with this analysis, and graphs are provided to help illustrate current winter wheat prospects compared with recent years.

Soil Moisture Graphs

Wichita
Chanute
Topeka
Russell
Goodland
Garden City
Dodge City

Precipitation Graphs

Wichita
Chanute
Topeka
Russell
Goodland
Garden City
Dodge City

As of October 22, 2000, 82 percent of Kansas winter wheat crop has been planted according to the Kansas Agricultural State Statistician. During this same week in 1999, 96 percent of the crop was planted and 94 percent is the 5 year average. As of October 22, only 36 percent of the crop had emerged, 77 percent in 1999 and 75 percent is the 5 year average.

Kansas temperatures and precipitation will continue to be monitored and reported on regularly.

For more information, contact Carl Gernazio with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, Center for Remote Sensing Analysis at (202) 690-0136.