October 19, 2000

Flooding in Italy's Po Valley

Heavy rains hit northern Italy causing floods in the agriculturally rich Po Valley as the harvest of summer crops was well under way (see rainfall map for Oct 8-16, 2000 and Oct 8-16, 1999). Mild precipitation covered a large part of northern Italy Wednesday and Thursday, October 11 and 12, moistening the top soil so that the ground was quickly saturated when heavy rainfall began Saturday October 14. Rains were continuing in the region as of Tuesday October 17. Worst hit was the prime rice producing area in the Piedmont area of the western Po Valley. The corn harvest is also expected to be delayed by the heavy precipitation, and some grain storage facilities have reportedly been flooded. Soybeans generally are grown towards the east end of the valley and are not thought to be seriously affected. Though it is still too early to get a full assessment of the damage, corn, rice, and soybeans tend to be tolerant of heavy rain at harvest if farmers can get back to the fields within a reasonable period of time.

Prior to the recent heavy rainfall, crop conditions for corn in the Po Valley had been excellent. The corn harvest was approximately two weeks ahead of normal, due to early planting, beneficial early summer rainfall, and hot summer weather. As a result, USDA's forecast (made prior to the recent rains) for Italian corn production is a record 10.8 million tons, or 7 percent more than in 1999, due to both expanded area and increased yield. The Piedmont accounts for 10 to 15 percent of total Italian corn production in a normal year. The reported year-to-year area increase reflected decisions by the majority of growers in the Po Valley to plant corn instead of wheat, due to adverse weather during the wheat planting season last fall. In recent years, Italian corn growers have begun to plant corn ahead of the normal period (as early as March), in order to take advantage of the late spring rains.

Rice total harvested area is currently estimated to be virtually unchanged from 1999, while average yields had been expected to be only marginally lower. Output was forecast at 840,000 tons, about the same as in 1999.

USDA's October 12 forecast for soybean harvested area is 250,000 hectares, similar to the level of 1999. Mandatory set-aside was set at 10 percent, the same as the year before. An average yield is forecast, with production estimated at 500,000 tons.

For more information, contact Ron Roberson or Paul Provance with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0882