October 27, 2000

Recent Rains Improve Winter Wheat Prospects In Oklahoma

Prior to planting and establishment of the 2000/01 winter wheat crop, the southern plains states were suffering from "drought" conditions. Over the next several days, the FSA - FAS Center for Remote Sensing Analysis will be publishing observations on winter wheat establishment across Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas. On October 25, a story highlighting Kansas conditions was released. While this report will focus on conditions in Oklahoma, since release of the Kansas report, rain in Kansas has continued across the major wheat growing areas of the central and western crop districts, especially reaching the southwest district. A 24 hour precipitation map prepared by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ending at 12Z on October 24, illustrates the rainfall distribution since the Kansas condition report. Note the heavy rainfall also in some of the Summer 2000's driest areas of Texas, New Mexico, and western Oklahoma. A 7 day precipitation map, also prepared by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, illustrates the rainfall distribution for the bulk of this beneficial Southern Plains rainfall. Rainfall across the major wheat producing areas since October 21 ranges from 1 inch to much greater than 5 inches.

Analysis of satellite images through October 20, 2000 indicates that the region is must less "green" than it was at this same time in October 1999. Included is a "Vegetation Index Comparison" of the region for October 1 - 15, comparing 1999 to 2000. This information correlates well with the "Pasture and Range" condition report released on October 23, 2000 by USDA NASS. According to this report, as of October 22, 66 percent of Kansas range and pastures are in poor-to-very poor condition. In Nebraska, 86 percent of range and pastures are in poor-to-very poor condition and in Colorado 58 percent. Oklahoma pastures and ranges are rated 62 percent poor-to-very poor and 67 percent of the Texas' pastures and ranges are rated poor-to-very poor.

During August and September 2000, precipitation was generally below normal and in large areas, non-existent across Oklahoma, especially in central and western counties. This combined with above-normal temperatures to deplete moisture in the surface soil layers, not a condition favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Significant rain finally reached across Oklahoma during October 22 - 25, and is well in time to benefit winter wheat establishment and favor growth on pastures and rangeland. Again, the 7 day precipitation map, through October 24, illustrates the rainfall distribution. Some local flooding can be expected and some newly planted fields may have been washed out. As of October 26, showers continue across all but western-most Oklahoma.

Soil moisture models and weather station database are used to help with this analysis, and graphs are provided to help illustrate current winter wheat prospects compared with recent years.

Soil Moisture Graphs

Ponca City
Enid
Oklahoma City
Gage
McAlester

Precipitation Graphs

Ponca City
Enid
Oklahoma City
Gage
McAlester

As of October 22, 2000, 60 percent of Oklahoma's winter wheat crop has been planted according to the Oklahoma Agricultural State Statistician. During this same week in 1999, 90 percent of the crop was planted and 85 percent is the 5 year average. As of October 22, only 26 percent of the crop had emerged, 63 percent in 1999 and 54 percent is the 5 year average.

Satellite imagery is continually monitored across Oklahoma. Landsat Thematic Mapper images of Enid, Oklahoma are provided to illustrate the typical predominence of winter wheat as the crop of central and northcentral Oklahoma. Images from September 11 and April 20, 2000 are provided. The "red" areas on the April scene are 2000 crop year winter wheat fields. The dark teal and green fields on the September 11 scene are recently planted, or recently prepared wheat fields. A scene from September 1, 1999 is also provided for comparison.

Oklahoma temperatures and precipitation will continue to be monitored and reported on regularly.

For more information, contact Carl Gernazio with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, Center for Remote Sensing Analysis at (202) 690-0136.