August 18, 2000

SPECIAL REPORT
EXCESSIVE RAINS AND FLOODING IN EAST INDIA AND BANGLADESH

SUMMARY: Excessive Rains Received in east India and Bangladesh
Excessive rainfall during the current monsoon season, in conjunction with the already swollen rivers and saturated soils, resulted in severe floods in the region. Extensive flooding in east India and Bangladesh has killed a many people, displaced thousands, destroyed local irrigation structures, and damaged crops. Rainfall amounts in excess of 500 mm fell on east Bangladesh and the border area of east India during the first ten days of August. The portion of the Indian state of Assam which borders Bangladesh was most severely impacted. And in Bangladesh provinces of Tripura, Chittagong, and Dhaka received the heaviest rainfall amounts. Localized heavy rains and subsequent flash floods have also occurred in India states of Bihar, West Bengal, Mizoram and Assam.

Monsoon Review: June 1 to August 9 Performance and Impacts
The southwest monsoon officially arrived at the southern tip of India on June 1st. Cumulative rainfall since June 1 has been normal or above normal in 26 of the 35 weather subdivisions, compared with 31 a year ago. However, isolated heavy rains do occur in some seasons. This season Bangladesh has received above normal amounts of rainfall for several weeks, however early August saw some the heaviest downpours. [season percent normal map]

Major Areas of Concern: Rice Production along Bangladesh India Eastern Border [top of page]
East India is a major Khrarif rice producing region, the impact of this flooding on total rice production is forecast to be limited. The three north eastern states of Orissa, Bihar, and West Bengal account for 25 to 30 percent of the Kharif production. The Kharif rice makes up approximately 85 percent of India's total yearly production. The worst flooding and damage to a rice crop are likely to have occurred in farther east in the state of Assam, India. According to statistics provided by the India Meteorological Department, the provinces of Megahayla and Assam combined produce 6 percent of the Kharif rice crop. In a worst case scenario, using a damage level of 30 percent, this represents a maximum loss of 2.5 percent of India's total forecast crop. Given the generally favorable conditions in other rice growing regions, we do not expect to change India's production forecast. In Bangladesh we forecast a maximum loss of 1 to 2 percent of total crop. At the time of flooding Bangladesh the earliest portion of the Aman crop planting had just gotten underway. The impact on the Aus crop is likely to be limited because the majority of Aus harvesting is completed by the end of July. The Aus crop is planted in March and harvested in July and accounts for 20 percent of the total Bangladesh production. The Aman crop accounts for 50 percent production with planting beginning in August and harvest in November. [India Rice Production]

Conditions Have Improved:
Flood waters have started to recede and rainfall amounts have returned to normal seasonal levels. However, because of the heavy amount of precipitation received around the country low-lying areas could see dangerous high river levels in the next few days. Flooding has been hampered relief efforts in both eastern India, particularly Assam, and in eastern Bangladesh.

Rainfall August 1 to 10
Rainfall August 1 to 10 | Flooded Areas August 1 to 10 | Rainfall August 11 to 16 2000 | top of page

Flooded Areas August 1 to 10
Rainfall August 1 to 10 | Flooded Areas August 1 to 10 | Rainfall August 11 to 16 2000 | top of page

Rainfall August 11 to 16 2000
RRainfall August 1 to 10 | Flooded Areas August 1 to 10 | Rainfall August 11 to 16 2000 | top of page

More Information on the Southwest Monsoon | top of page
The Kharif season in India coincides with the monsoon rains, extending from June to September. The southwest monsoon typically enters the mainland over Kerala in the first week of June. It moves northward to cover the whole of India by mid-July. It starts withdrawing from mid-September. The southwest monsoon is critical to the development of Indian agricultural production. The southwest monsoon provides 80 percent of India's total precipitation and is critical to the development of its major food and commercial crops such as rice, coarse grains, pulses, peanuts, soybeans and cotton. Planting of the largely rainfed Kharif (monsoon season) crops, which include rice, sorghum, corn, millet, peanut, soybean and cotton will begin after the monsoon firmly establishes itself over the major producing states and planting will continue through July and early August. Farmers in the northern rice surplus states of Punjab and Haryana, where irrigation is available, often complete rice transplanting prior to the monsoon arrival.. This season's pre-monsoon, or early season rains in central, south and east India should provide a favorable early season planting conditions for rice, soybeans, sorghum and corn. The country's economy is to a large extent dependent on monsoon rains.

For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0135 or by e-mail at crutchfieldj@fas.usda.gov.