August 10, 2000

BRAZIL: CORN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED DUE TO FROST IN PARANA

Brazil's 1999/2000 total corn production is estimated at 33.0 million tons, down by about 1 percent from last month, but 2 percent above last year. Harvested area is estimated at 12.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but 2 percent above last year.

Two crops of corn are cultivated, the first-crop (planted October-December, harvested June-September), and the second-crop known as the Safriha crop (planted January-February, harvested June-September). The first-crop accounts for about 80-85 percent of total corn production, while the Safrinha accounts for the rest. The key first-crop producing states (Fig1.) include: Parana (22%), Rio Grande do Sul (14%), Minas Gerais (14%), Santa Catarina (11%), Sao Paulo (10%), Goias (10%), Mato Gross do Sul (3%), and Mato Grosso (3%). Important Safrinha states include: Parana (37%), Sao Paulo (20%), Mato Grosso (15%), Mato Grosso do Sul (13%), and Goias (12%).

The first-crop experienced drought during the early part of the 1999/2000 growing season, but managed to recover from it with minimal damage. A series of freezes associated with cold fronts from Argentina impacted winter crops in Parana in mid-July (Fig. 2). Preliminary indication of the impact of the freeze on the Safrinha crop production is estimated to be around 500,000 tons. This scenario assumes that bulk of the crop is within 2 to 3 weeks before physiological maturity. Estimates of crop losses could rise higher if observed crop development is slower than expected.

For more information, contact Rao Achutuni with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0140.