July 18, 2000

Bumper wheat crop in Spain and Portugal

Spain and Portugal overcame poor winter conditions to arrive at a bumper wheat harvest. Spain's expected wheat harvest is up 40 percent from last year, and up 1 million tons from estimates earlier in the season. Portugal's expected harvest is up 30 percent from last year and up 65,000 tons from earlier in the season. Farmers were concerned about dry conditions and unusually high temperatures over the winter, but timely rainfall in the spring saved the crop from serious damage. Plentiful rain boosted yields over the rest of the growing season. The Iberian Peninsula has now had so much rainfall that farmers are worrying about wheat quality.

The expected bumper crop was helped by the fact that both Spain and Portugal planted a large area to wheat this year, as reforms in the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy made it more advantageous for producers to grow grains over oilseeds. Favorable rains during fall planting in September and October also encouraged more wheat area. Spain's expected area of 2.4 million hectares is comparable to the much larger wheat areas Spain used to plant prior to European Union accession. The difference between then and now is that before 1980 yields averaged 1.5 tons/hectare, while this year's yield is forecast to be 2.9 tons/hectare.

The favorable weather at planting was followed by a severe lack of rain over the winter and early spring. The Iberian peninsula received very little rain from November 1 through mid-March, and moisture supplies were further diminished by unusually warm temperatures. Producers feared an even more devastating drought than in 1999/2000, when the southern regions of both countries were severely affected. By mid-March 2000 Andalucia, a region on the south coast of Spain which grows about 70 percent of the country's durum crop, was at one-quarter its normal cumulative rainfall since planting. Reports of wheat damaged beyond repair were just starting to come out of Andalucia when the spring rains finally arrived across the peninsula around the 15^th of March. From that point on rainfall was very heavy across most of the country until the beginning of May, providing more than sufficient moisture for the growing crop. See this chart of cumulative rainfall in southern Spain to compare this year's rainfall to an average year (the red line is this year, green line last year, and the black line is average rainfall).

Wheat yields on the Iberian peninsula are expected to be very high this year thanks to the abundant rainfall. Spain's expected 2.9 tons/hectare yield would match 1996/97's record yield, and Portugal's expected 1.88 yield would make it the fourth highest yield on record. The main wheat growing areas in central and northwest Spain got at least 100 percent of their normal rainfall for the 3 months from the start of April through June 30th, and much of these areas received 125 or 150 percent of their normal three month rainfall. All of Portugal got 150 to 200 percent of its normal rainfall from April to July.

While the ample rainfall benefitted yields there is concern about what it has done to wheat quality. Heavy rains delayed the start of the winter wheat harvest for several weeks. Harvest began in mid June, starting in the south and progressing north. Harvest in the south is almost complete now, and the weather on the peninsula has been dry for the past couple of weeks, making the harvest easier. However, the extremely wet conditions late in the season could mean a drop in wheat quality because of disease and extra weed growth. The wheat will also have had difficulty drying down under the wet conditions preceding harvest. The United Kingdom and France have also experienced unusually high rainfall in their wheat growing areas this year, bringing the possibility that the European Union could have a large amount of feed-quality wheat on their hands this season.

For more information, contact Suzanne Miller with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0882