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June 9, 2000
China Wheat Update
China's wheat production for 2000/01 is expected to be lower than last year due to a large reduction in planted area and lower estimated yields. The weather for the 2000/01 winter wheat crop was favorable through March, but below-normal rainfall in April and May reduced soil moisture levels and stressed wheat during heading, reproduction, and grain fill. Heavy rain in early June may have had a negative impact on the harvest in southern wheat-growing areas. Spring wheat planting is completed, and growing conditions are generally good.
USDA estimates China’s 2000/01 total wheat crop at 104.0 million tons, down 3.0 million from last month's initial estimate of 107.0 million. Total area is estimated 27.5 million hectares, down 5 percent from last year and the lowest area since 1974. Estimated yields are 3.78 tons per hectare, slightly below the 5-year average but higher than the yields in 1996/97 and 1998/99. Last year China produced a bumper wheat crop of about 115.0 million tons, the second-largest in history.
Winter wheat makes up more than 90 percent of China's total wheat crop. According to a planting survey by the State Statistical Bureau, China's 2000/01 winter wheat area may be down about 1.8 million hectares or 7 percent from last year, while the Ministry of Agriculture forecast an area decline of 5 to 6 percent.
North - 58 percent (Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Shanxi)
Northwest - 9 percent (Shaanxi, Gansu, Xinjiang)
Southwest - 10 percent (Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan)
Center / East - 21 percent (Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu)
Sharply lower wheat prices and changes in the government's procurement policy led farmers along the Yangtze River to switch from low-quality winter wheat to winter rapeseed and other cash crops. Winter wheat area in western provinces is also expected to shrink. Another factor behind the decline in wheat area is the high cost and limited availability of water for irrigation. Between 60 to 80 percent of the winter crop receives some irrigation, but aquifers are being depleted and reservoir levels have dropped this spring.
Spring wheat planting in the Northwest and Northeast started in April, and moisture levels were adequate at the time. Demand for the low-quality spring wheat is poor, and starting this year, the Chinese Government will no longer purchase spring wheat at a protected price. Farmers will likely shift to alternatives such as oilseeds or forage crops, and spring wheat area is expected to decline by more than 10 percent.
Planting for the 2000/01 winter wheat crop began in mid-September and was completed by the end of October. Reports indicated that the crop entered dormancy in good condition. Precipitation across the North China Plain was close to normal from December through February, except in western Henan, western Hebei, and parts of Shaanxi, which remained dry through the winter. Warm and dry weather in March (Map 1) reduced surface soil moisture on the North China Plain and increased the need for supplemental irrigation, but total soil moisture was adequate in most areas, with drought conditions limited to the region north of the Yellow River. Satellite imagery showed the winter wheat appeared to be in good condition in early Spring. ( Image- March 29, 2000).
The dry weather continued throughout the month of April (Map 2), accompanied by above-normal temperatures. Soil moisture levels dropped sharply across northern China from March through May (Soil Moisture Graphs) and water for irrigation was in short supply. Light showers in early May provided some relief for the wheat in the north, where it was in the heading and filling stages, but the rain likely came too late to boost yields in central and southern areas where the crop was already maturing. Satellite imagery indicates that non-irrigated crops suffered from stress, especially in the southern and western parts of the North China Plain. (May 2000 Imagery). Conditions in the north (Beijing, Shandong, northern Hebei) were generally favorable in May, but these areas have received scant rainfall in June and yield potentials are declining.
1996 - 3.86 tons/hectare (dry season)
1997 - 4.27 tons/hectare (ideal weather, record crop)
1998 - 3.76 tons/hectare (excessive rainfall)
1999 - 4.06 tons/hectare (FAS estimate - winter drought, spring rainfall)
2000 - 3.82 tons/hectare (FAS estimate - dryness in spring)
Since June 1, more than 6 inches of rain have fallen over most of Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei and eastern Sichuan. The rain quickly saturated the soils and caused local flooding, which may lead to wheat harvest delays and quality problems. Harvesting is underway across the North China Plain as of June 9 and will be completed by the end of the month. Spring wheat harvest will take place in August.
For more information, contact Paulette Sandene with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0133.
