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May 15, 2000
The Canadian prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba had a very dry winter and early spring. There was relatively little snowfall over the winter. The all-important spring rainfall period usually starts around the beginning of May, and then rains again increase sharply around the second week in May. This year the rain that should have come at the beginning of May is late, and producers are warning that unless the rains come soon some regions will not have sufficient topsoil moisture for seed germination. Many areas report that because of moisture deficits at the beginning of this season, steady rainfall throughout the rest of the season will be essential for a good crop.
Since the beginning of December a large section of Alberta and the Interlake region of Manitoba have received less than 75 percent of their normal precipitation. Weather has been abnormally warm and windy this spring, which further decreased topsoil moisture. Many producers report problems with soil erosion, and some say that they will postpone their planting operations until they receive more rain.
On the plus side for the prairie provinces, subsoil moisture is adequate in most major crop growing areas. Also, the warm, dry weather has allowed them to start planting earlier then normal. In general, producers are ahead of average planting progress for this date. However, producers in some crop districts stopped planting rapeseed, and even wheat, in the past week because they believe conditions are too dry. At this point, even a small amount of rain in the dry regions could radically improve germination conditions, like the recent dramatic improvement of the Peace River region. There is still time in the planting window for additional rainfall to make a beneficial difference.
Conditions by Province:
Alberta:
Alberta accounts for just under 30 percent of Canada’s wheat production and a third of rapeseed production, making it second to Saskatchewan among the provinces. It is the biggest producer of barley in Canada, accounting for about 45 percent of the crop each year. It has had a lower percent of its average rainfall than the other prairie provinces, but cooler temperatures in the growing areas have helped preserve topsoil moisture. The province’s rainfall deficit has decreased in the last week. A large swath of the major planting areas along the border with Saskatchewan received less than 75 percent of their normal precipitation by May 5th. Conditions are adequate for planting, but more moisture would be helpful. The northern growing area surrounding Barrhead and Vermillion is the driest, where soil moisture conditions are very dry and not favorable for seeding. The Peace River region, important to grain production, was the driest part of the province until the beginning of May, receiving only about two-thirds its normal precipitation since December 1st. It received good rainfall over several days in the past two weeks, which put them close to normal and greatly improved soil germination conditions. The key barley growing region is principally in the center of the province running north to south. Much of this area did receive close to normal precipitation and should have fairly advantageous conditions for germination.
The green line in the cumulative rainfall chart is 1998-1999, the red line is 1999-2000
Saskatchewan:
Saskatchewan is the biggest grain and oilseed producer in Canada, accounting for over half of wheat production and over 40 percent of rapeseed production. Most of the province received nearly normal rainfall, but recent low precipitation, warm weather, and winds have caused topsoil moisture conditions in the southern part of the province to decline. The dry topsoil areas contain some of the major grain producing land, but is largely outside the intensive rapeseed area. Ironically, the area in the southeast corner bordering on Manitoba and America that flooded last year during planting season is short on topsoil moisture this year.
Saskatchewan is ahead on planting progress this year. By May 8 they had planted 18 percent of the 2000/01 crop, compared to the five-year average of 14 percent. Most crop districts should have adequate subsoil moisture for later in the season in the major crop producing areas, assuming normal weather from this point on. Parts of the southwest sections of the province have poor subsoil moisture, again in the grain areas more than rapeseed.
Manitoba:
Manitoba accounts for only about 13 percent of Canadian wheat and 22 percent of its rapeseed. Precipitation was fairly normal in the southeast part of the province, but in the southwest and Interlake region precipitation was below normal. Some of the Interlake region had less than half its normal precipitation from December to May. Topsoil moisture is especially low in the southwest corner along the border with Saskatchewan, again the section that was flooded during last year’s planting season. Unfortunately, the dry areas are all in the main grain and rapeseed producing areas of the province. This could have a significant effect on production if they do not receive more rain in the next few weeks and continue to have adequate rainfall throughout the season. Manitoba does have good seeding progress as of this week, although some producers reported stopping to wait for rain.
For more information, contact Suzanne Miller with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0882
