March 20, 2000

Northwest Africa:  Drought Continues in Morocco

After a promising beginning, the 2000/01 winter grains in Northwest Africa (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia) are being stressed by continued dry weather just as the crop is nearing a critical growth stage. In Morocco, there has been virtually no rain in the last ten weeks. Western Algeria has fared little better with only Tunisia and eastern Algeria receiving occasional showers and some very infrequent rains. These scattered rains have keep soil moisture levels minimally adequate. In all areas of Northwest Africa, additional rainfall is needed to boost soil moisture levels and stabilize yields as the crop enters its reproductive period.

In Morocco and western Algeria, abundant rainfall arrived during the October through December planting season. Sowing and emergence were optimal and ahead of schedule. Farther east in Tunisia and eastern Algeria, an early season moisture deficit was quickly washed away by soaking rains in November and December. In the eastern regions, planting started several weeks later than in the west, but by the end of December all field work was finished. Throughout Northwest Africa, an exceptional season was expected after the positive start to the winter grain season. However, after emergence, the rains stopped and soil moisture levels dropped as a strong high pressure system has directed storm systems away from the Maghreb, particularly the western half, resulting in persistent dry and hot conditions.

Surface soil moisture maps derived from weather station data reveal that the adequate soil moisture conditions at emergence has been constantly diminishing from mid-January through mid-March. These maps were derived from a two-layer soil moisture model which uses rainfall, soil type/texture, temperature, and evapotranspiration.

For more information, contact Bryan Purcell with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0138 or by e-mail at Purcellb@fas.usda.gov.