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Flooding Affects Rice and Cotton Crops in China
Excessive summer rainfall in central and southern China has led to serious flooding in the Yangtze River valley. Chinese officials have taken the drastic step of deliberately allowing farmland to be flooded in order to protect people and property downstream. The crops most likely affected by the flooding this year are early rice, late rice, and cotton.
Flooding occurs in some part of central and southern China every summer, but the 1998 floods have been unusually widespread and long-lasting. The Government of China has been reluctant to quantify the impact of the flooding on rice and cotton production, and estimates by other analysts vary considerably. The U.S. agricultural counselor in Beijing is currently traveling through the North China Plain and central China to evaluate the impact of the flooding.
China's Floods Worst Since 1954...
Unusually heavy rain was reported in many areas of southern and central China this summer. According to official reports, this year's floods have surpassed the floods of 1954, still remembered as the worst in modern history. The two major rain events, in late-June and late-July/early-August, were separated by 2 to 3 weeks of dry weather. Some locations received more than 18 inches of rain during a three-day period in July.
The runoff overwhelmed the dikes and flood-control facilities along the Yangtze River and resulted in what Chinese officials describe as the most serious flooding in decades, particularly in Hubei and Jiangxi Province. Rainfall has diminished, but water levels in lakes and rivers in central China remain very high. The start of the typhoon season in August brings the possibility of additional flooding. Plant diseases and pests reportedly have flourished in the hot, humid conditions this year and are expected to pose a greater-than-normal problem. The most important field crops affected by the Yangtze River flooding are rice and cotton. An estimated 50 percent of China's early-rice crop and 25 percent of China's cotton crop are grown in the affected provinces.
Output of Early Rice Crop Most Affected by Flooding ...
China's 1998/99 rice crop is estimated at 138.0 million tons (milled basis), down 2.0 million or 1 percent from last month due to lower area and yield. Output of early rice (23 percent of total output in 1996) is reported to be lower this year in Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi, and Jiangxi Provinces due primarily to wet weather during the June/July harvest period. Late rice (27 percent of total output) was transplanted in July and is still in the vegetative stage -- it is too early to assess the impact of flooding on the crop. Late-rice yields will largely be determined by the weather in August and September. Single-crop rice (51 percent of total output) is grown in Northeast China, the North China Plain, Sichuan, and parts of Jiangsu and Hubei outside the flooded areas. The weather for single-crop rice has been generally favorable and high yields are expected.
Losses to Cotton Crop in Flooded Provinces Offset by Favorable Growing Conditions in Other Regions...
China's 1998/99 cotton production is estimated 19.5 million bales, unchanged from last month, but down 8 percent from last year because of reduced yield expectations. Cotton yield is down from last year's record yield due to unfavorable weather during flowering and pollination. Excessive rainfall caused yield reductions in Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, and Anhui Provinces. These four provinces account for approximately 25 percent of total cotton production; however, flooding was not provincial-wide meaning that a much smaller percentage of China's total crop was impacted. The hot, wet weather also created suitable conditions for diseases and pests. Growing conditions have been generally favorable in Xinjiang Province and the North China Plain for cotton this year. Good crops in these areas may help offset losses in central China.
For more information, contact Paulette Sandene, Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, USDA at (202) 690-0133
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