July 20, 2005

Balkan Countries: Mid-Summer Update
Excessive rainfall negatively affecting Balkan winter grains 

Southeastern Europe:

USDA's July Wheat Estimate
USDA's July estimates for the 2005/06 Balkan wheat crop is 11.7 million tons, 19 percent below last year’s record crop.  Harvested area is estimated at 4.1 million hectares, down slightly from last month but up 5 percent from last season.  Yield is forecast at 2.85 tons/ha, down ten percent from last month and down twenty-three percent from last year, but very similar to the five-year average.  This year‘s wheat crop has not benefited from the nearly optimal weather last year that had pushed 2004/05 yields to a record 3.71 tons/ha.    

Winter Grain Production 
Winter wheat and barley had been doing very well with above average precipitation amounts during winter which raised soil moisture to favorable levels.  Winterkill was insignificant, thanks to coinciding snowcover that protected vegetation during the coldest outbreaks.  However, the above-average rainfall continued through spring and into summer. There has been almost no break in the pattern since May 1^st.  Large agricultural areas have been flooded in Serbia, Romania, and Bulgaria, resulting in agriculture ministries scrambling to produce damage assessments. Wheat and barley quality are surely deteriorating rapidly throughout the region.  Worries are growing that the moist conditions could cause potential fungi and bacteria outbreaks as well as the likely proliferation of weeds.  In addition, the frequent precipitation is interfering with the ongoing and sporadic barley harvest.  For now, the weather pattern remains in place and the forecast is for more undesirable precipitation to fall on the winter grain crops for the near future.  This year’s harvest is already about three weeks behind normal; a result of the combined effects of a longer than normal winter, and recent temperatures which have been hovering below average due to heavy cloud cover.  If the rains continue, the wheat harvest which is currently expected to start late this month, will be further delayed.  

On average, Romania, Bulgaria, and Serbia together produce over 85 percent of the Balkan wheat crop, with Romania producing 42   percent by itself.  Romania however, has had some of the highest rainfall totals this season, with several intense storms.  These storms have flooded significant areas of agricultural land in both its western region of Banat, and along the Danube River in the south.  Adjacent to western Romania, Serbia’s northeastern Banat region was also flooded, and yields are expected to be low.  Serbia, with its highly-productive grain producing region of Voijvodina in its north, produces about 18 percent of the Balkan’s wheat.  Bulgaria, the producer of about one-quarter of the region’s wheat is also experiencing severe moisture problems. Spot flooding and lodging have occurred because of the intense rains, and it is expected that some fields were flooded so badly that they will not be harvested.  

Summer Crops
On the positive side, summer crops stand to benefit from this year's heavy precipitation amounts.   More corn than wheat is grown in the Balkans, but summer can be a difficult season for its crops .Summer crops were planted later than normal this year because of the late winter and a wet spring.   It is often very dry during the summer months, which can leave corn (and sunflowers) vulnerable to low soil moisture.  A good crop can be drastically reduced during a hot and dry  Balkan summer.  During communist times, a large irrigation network existed in many of the agricultural areas, enhancing yield potential. The system, however, has since fallen into disrepair and is virtually nonexistent anymore. In any event, current soil moisture levels are saturated and don't need any irrigation.  With just a few timely showers later in the season, the soils should be able to provide all of the moisture needed for the summer row crop development until their September and October harvest.  Of course the rains will need to taper off, and the addition of warm, sunny days will be necessary for their further development, the but summer crops are currently in a good position.

Wheat Production Summary:

Maps and Graphs

Flood imagery:

Precipitation and Soil Moisture:

Rainfall and soil moisture

Cumulative rainfall amounts:

Significant heavy rain episodes (with flooding potential):

Vegetation index:
Vegetation Index 

Additional Information:
Previous Europe Update

Weather data for Europe and other world agricultural regions can be accessed at PECAD's user-friendly Crop Explorer website, located at: http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/

For more information, contact Bryan Purcell
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at (202) 690-0138