December 16, 2004

Thailand:  Drought Affects 2004/05 Rice Crop

Summary

Thailand experienced an abrupt end to the rainy season in September 2004, about a month earlier than normal.  Government and trade sources report that the immature main-season crop was stressed by the unseasonable dryness, and that yields would be lower than forecast earlier in the season.  The sudden end of the monsoon also led to concerns about the availability of irrigation water for the second rice crop, which will be planted during the dry season starting in January 2005.

Monsoon Ends Too Soon

Prospects for Thailand's 2004/05 main-season rice crop appeared very good as of August 2004.  Rainfall during the monsoon (beginning in May) had been near to above normal and higher than last year.  Preliminary forecasts by trade and government sources put the main season rice crop at 3 to 5 percent above last year.  However, the rainy season suddenly stopped in mid-September, 4 to 6 weeks earlier than normal.  By mid-October the Office of Agricultural Economics (Ministry of Agriculture) issued warnings that inadequate moisture would have a significant effect on the main rice crop, which was approaching harvest.  Officials were most concerned about the lack of rainfall in North and Northeast Thailand, the most important rice-production regions, but rainfall also was lower than normal in the Central Plain.  

Within a few weeks, the estimate of cropland threatened grew more serious.  In November, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation reported that drought had spread to 51 of 76 provinces in Thailand and damaged at least 1.77 million hectares of cropland, including about 1.4 million hectares of rice.  The Thai government announced several steps to help farmers cope with the drought.  These included searching for additional sources of water, supplying irrigation pumps to farmers, and creating rain through cloud seeding where practical.  Thailand's Office of the Agricultural Economics also advised farmers to consider cutting back on second crop rice and shifting to other crops such as corn, soybeans, or peanuts, to conserve water and reduce the chance of crop failure due to low irrigation supplies.  Dry season crops are almost entirely dependent on irrigation as Thailand normally receives almost no rainfall from November through March.

Production Expected to Drop in 2004/05

USDA December estimate for Thailand's 2004/05 rice production was 17.4 million tons (26.36 million, rough basis), a reduction of 3 percent from last year's record crop.  The main rice crop and second crop are estimated at 13.4 and 4.0 million tons, respectively.  The estimated yield of 2.56 tons per hectare is below last year and the 5-year average.  The yields of both main and second rice crops are expected to drop in 2004/05.  Harvested rice area is forecast at 10.2 million hectares, down slightly from last year.  Earlier in the season there were indications that farmers would expand second crop area in response to high government support prices, but this now seems unlikely.  The harvest for the 2004/05 main crop started in October and will continue through January 2005.  The smaller second crop will be planted in January/March and harvested in May/July 2005.

  Production (milled)       Yield (rough)    Harvested Area

Thailand Crop Calendar Chart

Crop Explorer

For more information, contact Paulette Sandene
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division,
Center for Remote Sensing Analysis at (202) 202-690-0133.