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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
December 27, 2004
USDA's December estimate for Kenya's 2004/05 corn production is at 2.1 million tons, down 400,000 tons or 16 percent from last year. The decrease in production is largely due to below-average rainfall during the "long-rains" season from March to December. Harvest for the long rain season from March to December is nearly complete and estimated production for the long rains season is 1.7 million tons, below the 5-year long-rains average of approximately 1.95 million tons. Total 2004/05 corn production is estimated at 2.1 million tons, by forecasting the short-rains corn production estimate at 400,000 tons, or slightly below the 5-year short-rains average of approximately 500,000 tons. Reduced grain production during the long-rains season caused Kenya's food aid requirements to be revised upwards to assist 2.7 million people. Food aid is targeted for the seven worst affected districts located in the pastoral regions of Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, and Garissa districts.
The "short-rains" season is from October to February and planting for the short-rains season is complete. The season started with October rains arriving a few weeks late in cropland regions of Eastern, southern Rift Valley, and Coast provinces. October rains were also below-average for most of the country, but rainfall in November was much better, especially for the northeastern pastoral areas. However, November's rainfall was below-average within many cropland regions and the seasonal rainfall to date is below-average in many agricultural areas.
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) conducted a crop survey in Kenya from October 25-30, 2004. The crop tour route transected most of the major croplands within Kenya's highlands, as well as some lowland regions. Crop conditions for both the long-rain and short-rain crops were observed, and interviews were conducted with government personnel, agronomists, traders, and farmers. Data from this crop tour was used in determining USDA's December's crop estimates for Kenya.
In general, the long rains harvest was below-average throughout the country, with below-average harvests expected in the major grain basket districts of Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu. Millers were buying recently harvested grain at prices higher than those offered by the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB), and farmers typically preferred selling to the millers due to less stringent moisture content standards. In addition, farmers harvested wet maize in some areas with moisture contents up to 20 percent, due to unusually heavy rains in late October and early November. Significant post harvest losses are expected from these wet conditions as on-farm drying and storage facilities are limited.
Crop Explorer (for East Africa)
Kenya Crop Tour from October 25-30, 2004
Production, Supply and Demand (PSD) On-line
District Corn Production for Long-Rain and Short-Rain Seasons
National Corn Production for the past 10-years.
NDVI Anomaly from December 1-10, 2004
Seasonal Rainfall Estimates (October 1 - December 20, 2004)
Start of Season (SoS) for 2004 Short-Rain Season
Landuse Map from Kenyan Ministry of Lands
Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) and Crop Production Systems
Unimodal and Bimodal Rainfall Regions in East Africa
Kenya Food Economy (from Save the Children)
