EU-25: Crop Travel Verifies 
Record Yields in Central Europe

Summary of European Union (EU-25) Crop Conditions 

As a whole, weather in the expanded European Union was extremely favorable during the entire 2004/05 growing season. Beneficial weather created bumper crops for both autumn- and spring-planted grains and oilseeds.  Planting conditions in the fall of 2003 were mostly favorable, with some reports of dryness in Germany, the United Kingdom (UK), Poland, and the Czech Republic.  Winter moisture was adequate, with the possible exception of deficits recorded in northern France.  Winter temperatures were moderate, and lingering snow cover in the colder, eastern countries insulated plants from potential freeze damage. The EU experienced normal spring and summer temperatures, and adequate to above-average precipitation levels. Spring rains were conducive to emerging spring wheat and tillering winter wheat; summer rains and mild temperatures contributed to raising yields.  A few adverse weather events did occur, including early summer dryness in France, and excessive summer wetness in Hungary.  In addition, the harvest was disrupted or delayed by heavy rains in most northern countries, including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, which resulted in widespread quality reductions.  Nevertheless, total EU winter grains and rapeseed harvest has been exceptional, and record production has been achieved.  Corn and sunflower yields also are expected to be very high, a direct result of abundant moisture and lack of extreme summer heat.

Wheat

The USDA October estimate for EU-25 total wheat production is 133.3 million tons, 25 percent above last year’s exceptionally low  level.  Weather improved wheat production in the NMS-10 so much that production in these 10 countries alone is up 48 percent. Harvested area is estimated at 23.2 million hectares, up 1 percent from last year.  Yield is forecast at a record high 5.75 million tons/ha, compared with last year’s weather-reduced, record low of 4.87 tons/ha. The five-year average yield is 5.26 tons/ha. 
 
More specifically, France, the EU’s largest producer, is estimated to harvest 39.0 million tons, compared to just 30.6 million harvested during last year’s drought-reduced crop. Germany is expected to harvest 25.0 million tons (19.3 million); the UK at 15.6 million tons (14.3 million); and Poland at 9.5 million tons (7.9 million). 

EU-25 Wheat Production Chart  

Barley

Barley production is estimated at 60.7 million tons from 13.4 million hectares. While the 4.53 tons/ha yield is a record, serious quality issues have been raised as harvest was disrupted or delayed by heavy rains in most northern countries, including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, resulting in widespread quality reductions.  Nevertheless, total EU barley production is the highest since 1998/99.

The EU’s largest barley producer, Germany is estimated to harvest 12.8 million tons, compared to 10.7 million harvested from last year’s weather-reduced crop. France is expected to harvest 11.0 million tons (9.8 million), Spain at 10.0 million tons (8.7 million), and the UK at 6.1 million tons (6.4 million).
EU-25 country barley total

Corn

A record 51.0 million tons of corn production , up 29 percent from last season and 10 percent above the five-year average (including NMS-10), is now estimated. Corn area in the EU-25 has increased substantially this year with the addition of the new eastern members. Corn area in the new lands is estimated at 1.2 million hectares in Hungary; 420,000 hectares in Poland; 150,000 hectares in Slovakia; and 90,000 hectares in the Czech Republic.

Summary of Crop Travel

During August, a team from USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) traveled in central Europe to assess the 2004/05 crop. Crops were found to be in excellent condition throughout the region.  The observed status of both autumn and spring-planted crops appeared well above average. Their good condition was achieved by a season of abundant rainfall and moderate temperatures.  This season’s large crops come on the heels of the dismal 2003/04 season, a year that saw adverse weather related events reduce production totals to just two-thirds of average.

Czech Republic

USDA Statistics  

USDA's October release estimates Czech wheat production is estimated at 4.9 million tons, 84 percent above last year’s record low, and 22 percent above the five-year average. Barley, improved 16 percent from last year to an estimated at 2.4 million tons.  Barley is predominantly a spring-planted crop in the Czech Republic; unlike wheat, it suffered significantly less damage in the previous year’s cold winter.  Rapeseed, a fall-sown crop, is estimated at 850,000 tons, 119 percent above last year’s failed crop. Corn production is estimated at 650,000 tons, 37 percent higher than last year, due to area and yield increases.

Summary of Crop Travel

The harvest in the Czech Republic was fully underway and progress was going very well during early August crop travel. Weather cooperated all season and remained favorable at harvest. All field stops and meetings with farmers and agriculture officials indicated a much better-than-average wheat crop was being collected. A mild winter with heavy snow cover had protected vegetation from frost damage.  During the spring and summer, adequate rainfall and cool temperatures boosted yields of winter-sown crops. The only real problem with the winter crop development occurred during last fall's dry period which stunted emergence in some areas. This issue, however, was largely minimized by the favorable weather since.  The well-known local adages of "a cool, wet May brings heaven to your barn" and a "white February makes a strong crop” both rang true this year. Wheat was in good condition (barley is largely spring-sown in the Czech Republic); the other major autumn-sown crop is rapeseed, and it had a near-record yield for the season. According to local farmers, the most essential ingredients for a bumper, high-quality rapeseed crop came together at just the right time this year: moderate weather at the end of the season with very little heat and just enough rain. 

Heavy rains in late June created harvest delays.  Typically, rapeseed and barley are harvested a couple weeks earlier than they were this year, but the rains compressed the harvest window. This forced simultaneous harvesting of barley and rapeseed with wheat, putting additional strain on farmers and resources. A reprieve arrived in July and August, as drier weather allowed harvesting and field activities to resume. 

By early August, frequent summer showers ensured that adequate soil moisture would remain for the balance of the summer crop growing season.  Sunflower was doing extreme well; almost every plant had large, fully pollinated heads. Corn yields are also expected to be very high this year, thanks to the elevated levels of soil moisture.  Farmers indicated that corn plants were forced to endure a cool May and June which curtailed early growth. Many farmers were expecting a drop in harvested corn area, which goes against the latest Statistics Office data.

FAS staff visited both Moravia, in eastern Czech Republic, the country’s largest crop producing region, and the much smaller but still important agricultural region along the Elbe River, just east of Prague. Moravia is the Czech Republic's traditional breadbasket because of it large size and its high soil quality. Rainfall, although abundant this year, is the region's limiting agricultural factor as irrigation is rare. The abundant rains received this year underlie this season's successful crop in Moravia. The Elbe River Valley has lighter, less productive soils and less rainfall, but more irrigation. In addition to the primary crops of winter wheat, summer barley (mostly malting), corn, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed, the Czech Republicalso produces potatoes, peas, spinach, alfalfa, carrots, cabbage, and cauliflower. Rapeseed is planted in late August while wheat is planted during September and October.

Harvest Photos

Wheat and Sunflower
Picture 1 Fields of Czech wheat. Heads are showing plump grains just before harvesting.
Picture 2 Fields of Czech sunflower. Large, fully pollinated sunflower heads.
Picture 3 Czech wheat at harvest; August 2004.
Picture 4 The Czech wheat harvest; August 2004.

Potatoes and Onions
Picture 6 Harvested onions ready to be cleaned.
Picture 7 Onions being cleaned.
Picture 8 Harvested potatoes.

Local Opinions on EU Integration and Policy

In general, farmers should not have major problems in adjusting to the EU system. There are relatively few costs they must bear in the transitional years. Food processors however, will have tougher challenges because of required equipment and extensive regulations associated with "integrated agriculture." The EU requires traceability of farm products from the store all the way back to the farm, hence the increased investment in "integrated agriculture."  Currently, this requirement is not fully mandatory, but Brussels is providing financial incentives to phase it in for the new countries. Crop rotations are not expected to change much with EU integration.  There  perhaps may be a trend towards more cereals, like wheat and corn.  While most farmers expect to see a long term increase in oilseeds (bio-fuels mandates by the EU will be re-written in 2005), there currently has been little change in oilseed area trends.

For the agriculture sector, the Czech Republic is one of the better-suited countries for EU accession.  Land still exists in large tracts, unlike the numerous 2-10 hectare fields in fellow EU-newcomer, Poland. These large fields permit economies of scale in equipment and labor to exist, boosting the country's competitiveness. Another reason for an expected easier transition period in the Czech Republic is that the country is one of the more advanced of the newly acceded nations, with just 3-4 percent of its population employed in agriculture. This compares very favorably to an amazing 25 percent of Poles employed in agriculture. Therefore, change and adaptation in Czech agriculture should be accomplished at a much quicker pace, and with much less resistance than in a county with a great proportion of its population employed in agriculture.  One farmer that we visited said that he frequently drives into Slovakiaduring summer with his large van to pick up laborers for the harvest.  Unemployment in Slovakia is almost double (19 percent) that of the CzechRepublic’s rate.  

Slovakia  

USDA Statistics   

USDA's October estimate for Slovakia’s wheat crop is 1.8 million tons, almost double last year’s 930,000 ton crop, and 25 percent above the five-year average. Barley production is estimated at 940,000 tons, 17 percent higher than last year and 32 percent above the five-year average. Rapeseed production rebounded in 2004/05 with 250,000 tons, compared to 2003/04, when a particularly harsh winter reduced the crop to just 53,000 tons. Sunflowerseed production declined this season because of a drop in area.  There was less land available for spring crops as a return to moderate winter temperatures prevented another large-scale rapeseed winterkill. Area planted in corn has increased almost every year for about ten years. Corn production is estimated 24 percent higher than last year, at 850,000 tons from 150,000 hectares.

Summary of Crop Travel

Slovakia has two major agricultural regions: the dominant western plain that borders Hungary, Austria, and the Czech Republic, and a much smaller growing area in its far-eastern corner, near the border with Ukraine.  The large middle section is mostly mountainous, with less productive cropland. The distribution of crops in Slovakia makes for an intense harvest period.  Since the small nation's agricultural land is highly concentrated in just one region (the west); crops experience similar growing conditions and are therefore ready for the harvest at the same time. During the season a devastating summer flood occurred in the eastern agricultural area. While this area comprises just fifteen percent of the country's total crop, the damage was large enough that it brought down the national total, diminishing what had looked to be an all-around spectacular season for the country's agriculture.

As a whole, however, the national wheat harvest will remain above average. With the exception of the eastern flood, the season saw beneficial rainfall for the entire season.  The favorable weather produced even, uniform plants. Similar to its neighbors,  increased rainfall during June delayed harvest in Slovakia. During August, fields of both winter and spring crops in Slovakia's west were in excellent condition and the dry weather greatly improving harvest prospects.

Local Farming Decisions and Situations in Slovakia

One farm visited by FAS had a field of oats that was already ripe and waiting to be harvested.  The farm manager, however, was in no hurry to have it combined. While oats are typically harvested before wheat, the persistent, mid-summer rain had delayed the wheat harvest. It was not critical for him to have the oats harvested right away.  Since oats are not as profitable as wheat, their harvest would have to wait, trumped by the more important wheat crop.  A problem could arise, however, if the farmer waits too long. The oats crop could dry out in the field and its seeds would fall out of the pods.  Another farming decision made by this particular farmer was that he decided not to plant potatoes this year because he thinks that they are not profitable, and that they can be purchased from Poland cheaper.

Another fairly common problem facing producers in poorer areas of eastern and central Europe is that thieves steal from fields – a situation that was encountered on the crop travel. Corn, stolen for food, is the usual target.

Regarding the EU, one statistic in particular was proudly noted by the Slovak Statistics Office. It referenced the efficiency of the Slovak farmer. On average, one Slovakian farmer feeds 83 citizens, while one farmer in the previous EU-15 feeds just 53.

Harvest Photos

Picture 1 Grain at harvest in western Slovakia; August 2004.
Picture 2 Grain at harvest in western Slovakia; August 2004

Hungary

USDA Statistics

USDA's October estimate for the Hungarian wheat crop is 5.8 million tons, exactly double last year’s crop of 2.9 million, and 44 percent above the five-year average.  Barley, primarily an autumn-sown crop in Hungary, is estimated at 1.4 million tons, up 70 percent from last year and 28 percent above the five-year average. Sunflower is Hungary’s dominant oilseed, and record yields are expected to produce a 950,000-ton crop, compared to last year’s 900,000 and the 762,000 ton-average. Corn production also is expected to be very high this year, 7.5 million tons, compared to the record 7.6 million set in 2001/02.

Summary of Crop Travel

Corn 

Production.  Hungary's main cereal crop is corn and with its new membership in the European Union, it will become the biggest competitor to France in EU corn production. However, it will lose preferential treatment in non-EU export markets of neighbors Bosnia, Serbia, and Croatia.  Ninety percent of corn in Hungary is consumed for feed, while just ten percent is used for milling.  

Several varieties of corn are grown in Hungary, but mid-length seasonal varieties are most common, and the most adapted to the climate.  On the other hand, the advantage in planting a shorter season variety would be for an early harvest that would allow time to plant autumn wheat.  However, this corn is harvested wet, and its drying is very expensive.  In addition, this type is also low-yielding and not good for human consumption. In addition, the longer season corn varieties are grown predominately south of Hungary, where summers are warmer and longer.  

Corn Varieties

-- 85-day corn is standard for Hungary.  
-- 75-day corn is harvested wet and must be dried at large expense. It is not used for human consumption. 
This variety is grown in northern countries with short seasons, such as Polandand Germany.
-- 95-100-day corn is best for human consumption.
> 100-day corn is high yielding feed corn grown in regions with long summers.

Cropping Timeline.  Corn is ideally planted between April 15th and May 10th. While the months of October and November are the prime harvesting months for corn, the crop can be harvested later with few problems, occasionally fields are even harvested in snow.  The target for corn moisture at harvest is 14 percent. While drying is expensive, corn harvested with high moisture content is very flexible because the wet kernels have a lower risk of damage.

Calendar.  The second half of July is typically the most critical time to watch for problems in Hungarian corn growth because this is the pollination period.  Probably the biggest concern for corn growers is that the silk, critical for pollination, could dry out during a hot, dry summer.  This season experienced abundant moisture and near-perfect pollination in both corn and sunflower plants.

Sunflowers

One of the most critical weather periods for sunflower occurs around late August to early September. According to Hungarian farmers, this is when the crop can be made or lost.  September is the optimal harvest month, when plants typically have dried out.  If harvesting occurs later, it coincides with the time that fall rains generally increase.  The additional moisture could cause fungus to spread from the ground and the stem to the sunflower head.  The sunflower head, bent over from the weight of its seeds, is vulnerable to the spreading fungus. Losses can be up to 40 percent of yield.  Some farmers, with adequate cash, elect to spray defoliation on sunflower plants at 20-22 percent moisture to dry down the crop to 12 percent moisture at harvest. 

Storage capacity is seen by some to be a problem this year because a bumper crop of both wheat and corn will be turned in this season; it's unusual to have both crops so large.  While rainy weather in July (which occurred this season) is needed for good corn growth, it often hurts wheat at harvest. This year, however, few problems were recorded with the autumn-sown crop.  The wheat harvest usually starts at the beginning of July and lasts into August. The wheat was mostly all harvested by the time the FAS group arrived in Hungary in mid-August.  

Local Input on EU Integration and Policy

One of the new challenges for the Hungarian farmer relates to the EU's policy of intervention, which is not offered until November 1. This date occurs after both the spring and fall crop harvest – making storage and financing a major issue. Hungaryhas made an unsuccessful attempt at changing its intervention offering date to an earlier month.  This was an effort in coinciding Hungary’s intervention date with that of the EU’s Mediterranean countries’ date (July 1^st.)  The problem with this scenario however, is that these countries have much different climatic seasons and earlier harvests than Hungary. 

Crop Technology

While fertilizer and input usage is slowly increasing each year, it is still well below the heavy amounts applied to crops during the years of high subsidies under the communist system.  Water fees are considered too high for the corresponding yield increases that would be attained from any irrigation investment.  In addition, while water costs have decreased at times, the prices are seen as too variable to be worth the costly investment of an irrigation system. 

The EU does provide support for farmers to grow organic crops. Organic products are typically grown under contract and for wealthier markets like Germany, Norway, or Switzerland, where consumers can afford to pay the 100-200 percent premium for organics. No fertilizer can be used in the process, only manure. There is a period of several years that must pass until a field can become certified "organic" and rid itself of previous "contaminates" in the process.  Insects are the worst problem for organic growers. Crop rotation can suppress weed growth but it doesn't significantly suppress insect damage. 

One farmer visited by FAS grows organic wheat, sunflower, and millet. He thinks the reason that there are not more organic farms is that farmers tend to be conservative and grow what they know.  According to this farmer, biotech crops were initially very poorly marketed to Hungary. They were pushed as being great for farmers because of their savings in both money and time, but the push said little about advantages for the consumer.  The initial focus was not on the large group of consumers, but geared toward just the two-percent of Hungarians employed in farming.  This group likely didn’t need to be convinced:  they just needed a receptive market.  

Photos:  

Pioneer Plant in Szarvas, Hungary.  Pictures of Pioneer’s greatly expanded plant in Szarvas, Hungary.  The newer parts of this facility opened in September and will be ready for the fall harvest.  These pictures show final preparations in August, just before the official dedication.

New Equipment
Picture 1     
Picture 2    
Picture 3    
Picture 4 
Picture 5 Bags of hybrid seed
Picture 6 Storage facility

Hybrid Corn De-tasseling    
Picture 1     
Picture 2  Parent corn grown for hybrid seed.  Once pollination is complete  the male plants are removed to save soil moisture.

Crops
Corn   Well developed, grain corn in Hungary is a direct result of this season's beneficial weather.
Millet Organic millet grown for cereal and bird seed, will be sold within the richer countries of western 
           Europe (Note that weeds are growing throughout the field because of the lack of herbicide usage).
Sunflower Sunflower yields are expected to be high.
Sunflower Heads This season, Hungary's sunflowers have large, fully pollinated heads.
Soybeans  While soybeans are not common in Hungary, yields are high.
Tilling  Fall tilling is underway in August.
Soil Hungary is blessed with very rich, fertile soils.

EU-25 Reference Map

For more information, contact Bryan Purcell
  with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at (202) 690-0138