April 30, 2004

India:  2003/04 Rabi Crop Assessment

India Crop Travel Report March 2004

Foreign Agricultural Service agricultural analysts from Washington, DC and New Delhi traveled through areas of central, southern, and western regions of India, which are important the rabi crop production.  FAS staff assessed crop conditions and met with industry and government leaders in the agricultural states of Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Numerous observations were made in many of the important rabi growing states of India.  The accompanying map shows observation locations mapped onto a composite satellite imagery using a Geographic Information System (GIS).

Madhya Pradesh: The Wheat Production Swing State

Madhya Pradesh is a center kharif soybean production; in addition, this is an important contributor to rabi wheat production.  Largely dependent on late monsoon rains and winter rainfall, Madhya Pradesh is India’s highly variable producer of wheat and the main producer of durum wheat.  The rabi wheat crop, planted in November 2003 and to be harvested in April 2004, has benefited from favorable growing conditions throughout India’s wheat growing region.  Madhya Pradesh is capable of producing several million tons of wheat; however, because it is nearly all rainfed, it is also makes the Madhya Pradesh India’s major swing state in wheat production.  This year's crop travel focused on this region due to anticipated large crop.  Our interviews and survey indicate that Madhya Pradesh will produce an above average crop this season. 

The other wheat growing states also are expected to produce average to above-average crops. Since wheat is mostly irrigated it will likely result in near record production in India. Water availability in the wheat growing states has generally been adequate-to-good, as was evident from our field trip through Haryana.

Rajasthan Rapeseed Area Rebounds in Response to Recent Precipitation

As of April 2004 USDA forecasts India's 2003/04 rapeseed production at 6.2 million tons. The current 2003/04 Indian rapeseed area forecast is 6.7 million hectares.  The previous monsoon and subsequent shower activity played an important role in rabi winter-sown area. The  western rapeseed growing state of Rajasthan is the most important state for the production of this crop.  An analysis of Indian rapeseed area as a function of precipitation amounts over different time periods reveals that the period 90 days prior to the planting is most significant in terms of area.  The final rapeseed area is highly correlated with the amount of precipitation received during the pre-sowing period. Therefore, given the amount of precipitation of received during the highly correlated  period of August 15 to November 15, 2003, we are forecasting a minimum rapeseed area of 6.7 million hectares for the 2003/04 season.

The state of Rajasthan produces approximately 38 percent of India’s annual rapeseed crop.  FAS interviews and field travel indicate that a record rapeseed output can be anticipated this season.  The factors contributing to this record production are as follows.  

• After several years of drought in Rajasthan, many growing areas received above average monsoon rainfall amounts, and even though rapeseed is not planted during the monsoon, the resulting build up of soil moisture from abundant pre-sowing rains was conducive to a larger sown area.  
• In addition, to soil moisture being adequate to initiate a larger planting this year, follow-on winter rains in December and January have proved exceptionally favorable for crop development.  
• Prices of oilseeds have been more favorable this season than in the past. In addition to the larger planted area, yields are expected to be higher than several of the past seasons.   
• Finally, pest and disease occurrence is reported very low this season, due to crop rotation. 

Given the favorable prices, increased plantings, and excellent growing conditions – the state of Rajasthan is expected to produce a very large if not record crop. In nearly all field locations visited the plants contained a large number of pods; in many cases weighing down the stalks as seen in this photo in Rajasthan.

For more information, contact James Crutchfield  
of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, at (202) 690-0135.