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Situation and Outlook - September 2004
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Foreign Developments
The world
oilseed production forecast for 2004/05 was increased 1.8 million tons in
September to 380.5 million tons. An
increase in the EU rapeseed crop, up 1.2 million tons to 14.2 million tons, and
an increase in India’s soybean crop, accounted for most of the increase.
Other production increases this month include cottonseed, and
sunflowerseed. The 2004/05 soybean
production was increased to 144,000 tons this month as a lower U.S. production
forecast, down 1.1 million tons to 77.2 million tons, nearly offset a 1.3
million ton increase in India’s production forecast.
A reduction
in forecast soybean imports for 2004/05 helped push world oilseed trade lower in
September. Total oilseed imports
were lowered to 74.5 million tons as soybean imports fell 987,000 tons to 63.5
million tons. This mirrors a
similar decline in soybean imports for 2003/04 and reflects the weaker demand
for soybean imports observed in recent weeks.
Reductions in soybean imports were noted for the EU, Egypt, Israel, and
others in 2003/04, and in China, Egypt, Malaysia and South Africa for 2004/05.
Soybean
exports for 2003/04 were reduced nearly 1.0 million tons to 55.5 million tons
this month. A slower year-to-date
export pace by Argentina accounted for much of the decline, with additional
shortfalls noted for the U.S. and Uruguay.
Similarly, soybean exports were reduced 1.2 million tons to 63.6 million
tons in 2004/05. Nearly all-major
exporters were impacted with particular attention focused on the U.S.,
Argentina, and Uruguay. The
exception was Canada where the soybean export forecast for both 2003/04 and
2004/05 was increased. Specializing
in identity preserved soybeans, year-to-date trade showed exports reaching
880,000 tons in 2003/04, which in turn prompted an increase in the 2004/05
export forecast to 950,000 tons.
Forecast
world oilseed crush for 2004/05 was increased 1.2 million tons to 301.0 million
tons, bolstered by crush increases for India and the EU following increases in
soybean and rapeseed production respectively.
This contrasts with a 700,000-ton drop in 2003/04 oilseed crush that
followed this month’s reduced soybean and sunflowerseed production estimates
for China. Lower world crush volume
led to declines in 2003/04-protein meal and vegetable oil production.
For 2004/05, the increase in crush volume led to higher production of
protein meals and vegetable oils. Forecast
world protein meal production rose 403,000 tons to 206.6 million tons while
vegetable oil production increased 410,000 tons to 105.9 million tons.
India’s soybean meal export forecast for 2004/05 increased 400,000 tons to 2.5 million tons this month. This more than offset lower soybean meal exports from the U.S. However, reduced sunflowerseed meal and fishmeal export forecasts pushed the total 2004/05 meal export forecast lower. World vegetable oil imports for 2004/05 were lowered this month with reductions in the soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil forecasts. Total imports declined 370,000 tons to 38.1 million tons with palm oil down 191,000 tons to 20.9 million tons and soybean oil down 174,000 tons to 9.7 million tons. Forecast world consumption of vegetable oil for 2004/05 was higher despite the cut in the import forecast due to the larger rapeseed crush. Total 2004/05 vegetable oil consumption is forecast to reach 105.1 million tons, up 238,000 tons from last month and 6-percent above the 2003/04 forecast.
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
September 3, 2004 | Ukraine | September Update
September 2, 2004 | Germany | Record Rapeseed Crop Expected
September 2, 2004 | Turkey | Sunflower and Products Update
September 3, 2004 | India | September Update
August 31, 2004 | Malaysia | August Update