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Situation and Outlook - August 2004
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Foreign Developments
The
world oilseed production forecast for 2004/05 was reduced 338,000 tons in August
to 378.8 million tons. The decline
is in response to a lower U.S. soybean production forecast of 78.3 million tons,
down 1.7 million tons from the previous month.
Offsetting this decline were increases in global cottonseed, rapeseed,
sunflowerseed, and peanut production. Increased
cottonseed and peanut production forecasts were the result of increases in U.S.
production. U.S. cottonseed
production increased 662,000 tons in August to 6.7 million tons while U.S.
peanut production rose 214,000 tons to 2.0 million tons. Increased planted area and improved yield projections
prompted the increases. Similar
yield increases helped push EU and Canadian rapeseed production forecasts higher
this month. Canada’s rapeseed
crop is forecast to reach 7.2 million tons in 2004/05 while the EU rapeseed crop
is expected to reach 13.0 million tons. The
global 2004/05 sunflowerseed production forecast was raised 100,000 tons to 26.1
million tons this month in response to an increase in Russian production.
World
oilseed trade forecasts for 2003/04 and 2004/05 were reduced this month
primarily due to lower soybean imports by China, Thailand and Indonesia.
The global soybean import forecast for 2003/04 was lowered 2.0 million
tons to 55.6 million tons while the 2004/05-import forecast declined nearly 1.2
million tons to 64.5 million tons. The
decline in China’s soybean imports, down 1.1 million tons to 16.9 million tons
in 2003/04, and 1.0 million tons to 23.0 million tons in 2004/05, reflects the
slower pace of imports corresponding to the decline in crush margins.
Indonesia’s soybean import forecast was lowered 400,000 tons in 2003/04
and 200,000 tons in 2004/05 in response to a slower import pace as high soybean
prices reduced demand for food use. Thailand’s
soybean import forecast was reduced 450,000 tons in 2003/04 and 400,000 in
2004/05 in response to continued difficulties with avian flu that has reduced
demand for soybeans and poultry feed. World
soybean exports were lowered 1.7 million tons in 2003/04 to 56.4 million tons
and 1.5 million tons in 2004/05 to 64.8 million tons.
Other
oilseed trade changes this month include a reduction in China’s peanut exports
for 2003/04 and an increase in China’s rapeseed import forecast in 2004/05.
China’s peanut export forecast was reduced 150,000 tons in response to
an observed decline in the export pace this year. Exports are forecast to reach 900,000 tons this year, 192,000
tons below 2002/03 and near the level reached in 2001/02.
China’s rapeseed import forecast for 2004/05 was increased 200,000 tons
to 1.4 million tons. Growing world supplies of rapeseed, coupled with reduced
soybean and cottonseed crush and continued growing demand for vegetable oil in
China, prompted the increase in rapeseed imports.
Global
oilseed ending stocks rose significantly this month for both 2003/04 and
2004/05. Increased Brazilian
soybean stocks in 2003/04, and increased soybean stocks in Argentina, Brazil,
and the U.S. in 2004/05 accounted for most of the increase.
World soybean stocks are forecast to reach 36.2 million tons in 2003/04,
up 2.7 million tons, and 50.2 million tons in 2004/05, up 3.2 million tons.
Forecast
world protein meal production was reduced this month for both 2003/04 and
2004/05. Protein meal production was lowered 2.0 million tons in
2003/04 and 1.6 million tons in 2004/05 to 192.6 million tons and 206.2 million
tons respectively. Much of the
decline in protein meal production was due to a reduction in soybean crush,
primarily in the U.S., China, Thailand, and Brazil.
Brazil’s soybean meal production forecast for 2003/04 was reduced 1.0
million tons to 23.6 million tons in response to lower export demand.
The decline in 2004/05 was not as dramatic with production down 273,000
tons to 27.4 million tons. U.S.
soybean meal production, which increased 341,000 tons to 32.6 million tons in
2003/04, was lowered 408,000 tons to 35.1 million tons in 2004/05 in response to
the lower soybean production forecast this month.
Reduced soybean meal production in China and Thailand is in response to
lower demand for meal and associated declines in soybean imports.
Global
protein meal trade was also reduced this month.
Global imports were reduced 746,000 tons in 2003/04 and 576,000 tons in
2004/05. Reduced demand for soybean meal imports dominated the changes
this month, led by lower imports by Indonesia and Thailand due to reduced demand
for poultry feed. Imports were also
reduced for the EU, Turkey, and the U.S. for 2003/04.
Brazil’s exports absorbed most of the impact of reduced trade volume
with soybean meal exports lowered 1.5 million tons in 2003/04 and 523,000 tons
in 2004/05.
Global
vegetable oil production was reduced 377,000 tons in 2003/04 and 168,000 tons in
2004/05 to 100.8 million tons and 105.5 million tons respectively.
While a decline in soybean oil production dominated the change in
2003/04, increased rapeseed and sunflowerseed oil production partially offset
reduced soybean and cottonseed oil production in 2004/05.
World cottonseed oil production was reduced 103,000 tons to 4.2 million
tons in 2004/05 due to a 500,000-ton decline in cottonseed crush in China.
Offsetting some of this decline was an increase in rapeseed crush in
China and sunflowerseed crush in Russia.
Global
vegetable oil imports were reduced for 2003/04 and 2004/05.
Soybean oil accounted for a significant share of the reduction in both
years, down 186,000 tons in 2003/04 and 199,000 tons in 2004/05.
Significant reductions in soybean oil import forecasts were noted for
Algeria, Iran, India and Malaysia for 2003/04 and for China and Malaysia in
2004/05. Reductions in soybean oil
export forecasts were entered for Malaysia and Brazil in both years.
Palm oil imports by China were increased 103,000 tons in 2004/05, helping
offset lower soybean oil and cottonseed oil supplies in 2004/05.
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
August 9, 2004 | Bulgaria | Oilseeds and Products Annual
August 3, 2004 | EU | Oilseeds and Products Annual
July 15, 2004 | Israel | Oilseeds and Products Annual
August 5, 2004 | India | Trade Data
July 30, 2004 | Philippines | Coconut Products Export - April 2004