Situation and Outlook - July 2004
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world oilseed production forecast for 2004/05 was increased 776,000 tons in July
to 379.1 million tons. Increases
were noted for rapeseed (Canada and the EU), sunflowerseed (Eastern Europe), and
cottonseed (China and India), offsetting reduced soybean production in the
United States. Estimates of 2003/04
oilseed production rose 138,000 tons to 335.9 million tons this month.
Production increases for India, Brazil, and Australia cottonseed led the
from Canada prompted an increase in both rapeseed and soybean production for
2004/05. Soybean production is forecast to reach a record 3.0 million
tons due to improved yields and record plantings in 2004. Rapeseed production is also forecast to rebound to 7.0
million tons in 2004/05 as area expansion, coupled with adequate soil moisture
should increase production. Romania’s
sunflowerseed production forecast for 2004/05 was increased 300,000 tons this
month. Production is forecast to
reach 1.4 million tons, unchanged from last year’s improved output.
world oilseed exports for 2004/05 increased 306,000 tons this month to 78.0
million tons. Increased
sunflowerseed exports from Romania and rapeseed from Canada accounted for much
of the increase. Forecast 2004/05
soybean exports declined only slightly this month as lower U.S. export volume
was nearly offset by increases in South American and Canadian exports. Demand for imported U.S. soybeans by Canada is expected to
decline in 2004/05 in response to the increased availability of domestic
soybeans. Canada’s 2004/05
soybean import forecast was reduced 150,000 tons to 300,000 tons this month and
would be the lowest import level since 1998/99.
The world soybean trade forecast for 2003/04 was reduced 1.0 million tons
this month in response to the recent slow-down in China’s import pace.
Consequently, South American export forecast for 2003/04 were also
protein meal production for 2004/05 was increased 155,000 tons to 207.8 million
tons in July. Increased rapeseed,
sunflowerseed, and cottonseed crush led to the increase.
Soybean meal production for 2004/05 was reduced 166,000 tons to 144.0
million tons in response to reduced crush forecasts for China and the United
States this month. Protein meal
trade for 2004/05 was marginally higher this month, due to increases in forecast
rapeseed and sunflowerseed meal exports. Protein
meal production in 2003/04 was reduced nearly 240,000 tons to 194.6 million
tons. Reduced production in China,
in response to an expected decline in soybean imports for 2003/04, more than
offset increased crush and soybean meal production in the United States.
world vegetable oil production for 2004/05 was increased 166,000 tons this month
to 105.6 million tons. Increases in
production of rapeseed, sunflowerseed and cottonseed oil more than offset
reduced soybean oil production. Forecast
vegetable oil imports declined nearly 200,000 tons in July, mainly due to a
200,000-ton reduction in China’s import forecast.
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
June 21, 2004 | Zimbabwe | Oilseeds and Products Annual
June 22, 2004 | Chile |Fishmeal and Fish Oil Exports
July 7, 2004 | Russian Federation | July Update
June 23, 2004 | Brazil | New Soybean Regulations
July 6, 2004 | Taiwan | July 2004 Update