Situation and Outlook - July 2004

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Foreign Developments

The world oilseed production forecast for 2004/05 was increased 776,000 tons in July to 379.1 million tons.  Increases were noted for rapeseed (Canada and the EU), sunflowerseed (Eastern Europe), and cottonseed (China and India), offsetting reduced soybean production in the United States.  Estimates of 2003/04 oilseed production rose 138,000 tons to 335.9 million tons this month.  Production increases for India, Brazil, and Australia cottonseed led the way.

Reports from Canada prompted an increase in both rapeseed and soybean production for 2004/05.  Soybean production is forecast to reach a record 3.0 million tons due to improved yields and record plantings in 2004.  Rapeseed production is also forecast to rebound to 7.0 million tons in 2004/05 as area expansion, coupled with adequate soil moisture should increase production.  Romania’s sunflowerseed production forecast for 2004/05 was increased 300,000 tons this month.  Production is forecast to reach 1.4 million tons, unchanged from last year’s improved output.

Forecast world oilseed exports for 2004/05 increased 306,000 tons this month to 78.0 million tons.  Increased sunflowerseed exports from Romania and rapeseed from Canada accounted for much of the increase.  Forecast 2004/05 soybean exports declined only slightly this month as lower U.S. export volume was nearly offset by increases in South American and Canadian exports.  Demand for imported U.S. soybeans by Canada is expected to decline in 2004/05 in response to the increased availability of domestic soybeans.  Canada’s 2004/05 soybean import forecast was reduced 150,000 tons to 300,000 tons this month and would be the lowest import level since 1998/99.  The world soybean trade forecast for 2003/04 was reduced 1.0 million tons this month in response to the recent slow-down in China’s import pace.  Consequently, South American export forecast for 2003/04 were also reduced.

Forecast protein meal production for 2004/05 was increased 155,000 tons to 207.8 million tons in July.  Increased rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed crush led to the increase.  Soybean meal production for 2004/05 was reduced 166,000 tons to 144.0 million tons in response to reduced crush forecasts for China and the United States this month.  Protein meal trade for 2004/05 was marginally higher this month, due to increases in forecast rapeseed and sunflowerseed meal exports.  Protein meal production in 2003/04 was reduced nearly 240,000 tons to 194.6 million tons.  Reduced production in China, in response to an expected decline in soybean imports for 2003/04, more than offset increased crush and soybean meal production in the United States.

Forecast world vegetable oil production for 2004/05 was increased 166,000 tons this month to 105.6 million tons.  Increases in production of rapeseed, sunflowerseed and cottonseed oil more than offset reduced soybean oil production.  Forecast vegetable oil imports declined nearly 200,000 tons in July, mainly due to a 200,000-ton reduction in China’s import forecast.

 For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/

June 21, 2004 | Zimbabwe | Oilseeds and Products Annual

June 22, 2004 | Chile |Fishmeal and Fish Oil Exports

July 7, 2004 | Russian Federation | July Update

June 23, 2004 |  Brazil  | New Soybean Regulations

July 6, 2004 |  Taiwan  | July 2004 Update