Situation and Outlook - February 2004

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Foreign Developments

Projected global oilseed production rose almost 180 thousand metric tons to 345.9 million tons in February, or 0.5 percent above last month’s estimate.  Most of the increase is due to a 1 million ton increase in soybeans in Brazil.  Additional increases in production include sunflowerseed, up 540 thousand tons to just over 26 million tons.  Most of this gain is due to a production increase of 450 thousand tons in Russia, with lesser increases in Hungary, and Kazakhstan, all due to increases in yields.  This more than offset a drop in the Ukraine of 250 thousand tons due largely to lower cultivated area.  There were smaller increases in cottonseed production, as well as peanuts and rapeseed.  Brazil’s soybean export forecast rose 300 thousand tons while exports from Argentina fell the same amount.  Projected soybean ending stocks for both countries increased.

The latest projections place 2003/04 ending stocks at 41.3 million tons, 1.8 million tons lower than estimated 2002/03 ending stocks, but about 1.5 million tons more than last month’s estimate for 2003/04.  Almost all of this change in ending stocks is attributed to an increase of about 1.5 million tons in soybeans in South America.  World oilseed stocks are projected to be much tighter at the end of 2003/04 than last year.

Global oilseed meal production is expected to drop 190 thousand tons from last month’s estimate.  The slight drop in soybean meal production of 240 thousand tons, as well as a smaller decline in fishmeal, more than offsets modest gains in sunflowerseed meal, cottonseed meal and rapeseed meal.  Global soybean meal consumption is reduced this month partly due to weaker demand in Asia resulting from the avian influenza outbreak, especially in Thailand and Indonesia.

Forecast vegetable oil production rose 130 thousand tons from last month to 100.8 million tons mainly due to a 100 thousand ton increase in sunflowerseed oil, as well as smaller increases in several other oilseeds.  World vegetable oil ending stocks are expected to fall 140 thousand tons to 6.2 million tons. 

For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/

February 9, 2004 | Cote d'Ivoire | Oilseeds and Products Annual

February 6, 2003 | Ukraine | February Update

February 6, 2004 | Colombia | Oilseeds and Products Annual

January 30, 2004 | India | February Update

January 29, 2004 | Nigeria | Oilseeds and Products Annual

January 20, 2004 | Jamaica & Dep | Oilseeds and Products Annual