Situation and Outlook - January 2004

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Foreign Developments

Projected global oilseed production fell slightly to 344.2 million tons in January, or 0.2 percent from last month’s estimate.  Declines in production of 725 thousand tons for soybeans and 244 thousand tons for sunflowerseed accounted for most of the change, and more than offset a rise in peanut production of 210 thousand tons.  The fall in soybean production is largely attributed to a decline in the U.S. yield to 33.4 bu per acre, the lowest since 1993/94.  The decline in sunflowerseed production is mostly due to dry weather in Argentina.  The expected increase in peanut production is due mostly to ideal growing conditions in India.  Brazilian soybean exports rose by 400 thousand tons, while U.S. exports rose 270 thousand tons.  Projected soybean imports by China rose 1 million tons, more than offsetting a fall for the EU of 300 thousand tons, and a decrease of Bolivian imports of 110 thousand tons.  The decline in global oilseed production, along with the increase in exports, is leading to tighter ending stocks of major oilseeds.

World oilseed stocks are projected to be much tighter at the end of 2003/04 than they were at the end of 2002/03.  The latest projections place 2003/04 ending stocks at 39.8 million tons, 2.8 million tons lower than estimated 2002/03 ending stocks. 

Global soybean meal production is expected to rise 143 thousand tons from last month’s estimate.  Tight domestic supplies of U.S. soybeans caused by lower production and high early season exports have reduced crush and lowered soybean meal export prospects by 226 thousand tons, while imports are expected to rise 123 thousand tons.  The EU is expected to raise imports of soybean meal by 300 thousand tons, while Chinese imports of soybean meal should decrease by 150 thousand tons from last month’s estimate.

Vegetable oil production is expected to rise 6.4 million tons from last year to 100.7 million tons.  Consumption is expected to increase 4.2 million tons to 99.9 million tons.  Ending stocks will rise 240 thousand tons to 6.4 million tons.  Most of the growth in the production of vegetable oils will be from rapeseed, soybean, peanut and sunflowerseed, up by 1.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons, 548 thousand tons, and 453 thousand tons, respectively.

For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/

January 2, 2004 | Taiwan | Oilseeds and Products Annual

December 26, 2003 | China, Peoples Republic of | China's Peanut Sector

December 17, 2003 | Poland | Poland Approves Bio-Diesel Law

December 16, 2003 | Turkey | Soybean Update

December 16, 2003 | Vietnam | Peanut Update

December 12, 2003 | India | Peanut Report