Situation and Outlook - December 2003

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Foreign Developments

Projected global oilseed production fell to 344.9 million tons in December, down by 2.6 million tons, or 0.7 percent from last month’s estimate.  Soybean production fell by 2 million tons and sunflowerseed production fell 525 thousand tons.  Yield changes led to an increase of 320 thousand tons in Canada’s rapeseed production and a cut of 430 thousand tons in estimated Canadian soybean production.  Continued weather problems in Argentina switched area into soybean production from sunflowerseeds, peanuts, and other crops.  The area decline reduced projected Argentine sunflowerseed and peanut production by 400 and 85 thousand tons, respectievly.  Argentine 2003/04 peanut production is now estimated at 215 thousand tons, down from 300 thousand tons last month, but only 5 thousand tons less than last year’s estimated crop.  Lower Argentine soybean yields more than offset the increase in soybean area, leading to a fall of 1.5 million tons in Argentine soybean production.  Turkish sunflowerseed production fell by 150 thousand tons due to high temperatures.  Peanut production in Senegal was also reduced.

Brazilian soybean exports rose by 400 thousand tons, partly offsetting reductions of 500, and 100 thousand tons in Argentine and Canadian soybean exports, respectively.  Projected soybean imports by China remained at 22 million tons.  Argentine sunflowerseed exports fell by 160 thousand tons due to lower production, and European imports were reduced by 200 thousand tons.  Indian peanut and peanut meal exports rose.  The additional Canadian rapeseed production led to increases in projected rapeseed imports by China and Japan.  Total projected global oilseed trade fell by 111 thousand tons to 78.5 million tons.

Global oilseed stocks are projected to be significantly tighter at the end of 2003/04 than they were at the end of 2002/03.  Current projections place 2003/04 ending stocks at 39.9 million tons, 2 million tons lower than estimated 2002/03 ending stocks.  Last month the projected decrease in ending stocks was 689 thousand tons.  While projected 2003/04 ending stocks fell from last month’s levels, estimated 2002/03 ending stocks rose due to lower than expected August and September exports from Argentina.

China is projected to import 3.1 million tons of palm oil in 2003/04, an increase of 400 thousand tons from last month, and the same amount as in 2002/03.   Indian soybean oil imports fell by 200 thousand tons to 1.25 million tons.  U.S. rapeseed oil imports, production, and consumption also rose.

For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/

December 4, 2003 | Indonesia | Palm Oil Update

December 3, 2003 | Canada | Peanut Sector Report

November 21, 2003 | Argentina | Oilseeds and Products Updates

November 19, 2003 | Russian Federation | Oilseeds and Products November Update

November 10, 2003 | Serbia and Montenegro | Soybeans and Products Update