Situation and Outlook - November 2003

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Foreign Developments

World oilseed production is projected at 347.5 million tons this month, an increase of about 800 thousand tons from October’s projections.  Increases in soybean, peanut, and rapeseed production were partly offset by lower projected cottonseed and sunflowerseed production.  Dry conditions in Argentina shifted projected crop area into soybeans from sunflower and corn production, and increased forecasted Argentine soybean production by one million tons, to a total of 38 million.  Projected U.S. soybean production fell by 450 thousand tons, while good weather in India boosted the projected 2003/04 soybean harvest by 400 thousand tons.  Projected soybean production also rose by 250 thousand tons in Paraguay and 135 thousand tons in Ukraine.  Peanut production in China and rapeseed production in India also rose by 600 and 300 thousand tons, respectively.  The 941 thousand ton reduction in global cottonseed production was mostly due to a 1.2 million ton fall in Chinese production. Projected Brazilian and U.S. cottonseed production rose while projected Pakistani cottonseed production fell.  Sunseed production fell by 500 thousand tons in Argentina, due to the dry conditions, and declined by 200 and 100 thousand tons in Ukraine and Romania, respectively.

Global soybean exports are expected to reach 67.2 million tons in 2003/04, an increase of 824 thousand tons from October.  Unexpectedly strong U.S. exports, and additional soybean supplies in Argentina, lead to a slight reduction in projected Brazilian soybean exports.  China’s 2003/04 soybean imports were increased to 22 million tons from 20.5 last month supported by the increase of 1.1 million tons in estimated 2002/03 Chinese soybean imports.  Projected Mexican soybean imports for 2003/04 were cut by 400 thousand tons to 4.4 million due to reduced U.S. supply and weaker than expected 2002/03 imports. 

China’s soymeal imports are projected at 200 thousand tons, up from 25 thousand in 2002/03, reflecting shipments from India.  Crush and soybean meal production forecasts for India, Argentina, and China rose, along with meal export projections for Argentina and India.  U.S. soybean meal exports fell by 452 thousand tons as strong soybean exports reduce supplies for crushing in the U.S. 

For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/

October 24, 2003 | Spain | Oilseeds and Products Update

October 24, 2003 | India | GOI Notifies Changes in Edible Oil Tariff Values

November 5, 2003 | Germany | Crop Estimate Update for Rapeseed and Sunflower

November 5, 2003 | India | Oilseeds and Products November Updates

November 4, 2003 | India | GOI Notifies Changes in Edible Oil Tariff Values

November 3, 2003 | Brazil | Soybeans and Products Update