September 2002 Circular Summary

Situation and Outlook - October 2003

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Foreign Developments

Projected world oilseed production was increased by 1 million tons in October, to 346.8 million tons. Projected rapeseed and cottonseed production was increased by 1.5 and 0.4 million tons, respectively. Projected soybean production fell by 900 thousand tons, as a 4 million ton increase in Brazil was more than offset by reductions of 4.7 million tons in the United States and 400 thousand tons in China. Soybean production in Uruguay is projected to almost double to 350 thousand tons in 2003/04, an increase of 125 thousand tons from last month, as Argentine farmers set up operations in Uruguay. Favorable weather conditions drove the Indian production forecast up by 900 thousand tons, and the Canadian and EU rapeseed production forecasts rose by 150 and 400 thousand tons, respectively. Projected cottonseed production increased by approximately 200 thousand tons in both the U.S. and EU. An increase of 400 thousand tons in projected Ukrainian sunflowerseed production was almost completely offset by declines in the EU, U.S., Canada and Uruguay.

Global soybean exports are projected to reach 66.4 million tons in 2003/04, up from 64.7 million tons last month, with Brazil accounting for almost all of the increase. Chinese soybean imports are projected to reach 20.5 million tons in 2003/04, an increase of 1.5 million from last month. China’s 2002/03 soybean imports are now estimated at 20.3 million tons, an increase of 827 thousand tons from last month on strong import data. Monthly Brazilian imports of soybeans have risen, leading to an increase of 400 thousand tons in projected 2003/04 imports.

Global soybean ending stocks are forecast to decline to 36 million tons in 2003/04 from 37.3 million tons last year. Brazil’s end of September stocks are projected to increase slightly in spite of the short U.S. crop.

The higher projected soybean crush in Brazil and China boosted soybean meal trade and soybean oil consumption. An increase in estimated 2002/03 South American soybean oil exports reduced South American soybean oil stocks to very low levels. Projected 2003/04 Chinese soybean oil imports rose by 150 thousand tons to 1.3 million. EU palm oil imports were increased by 300 thousand tons in both 2002/03 and 2003/04, while Indian palm oil imports were cut by 125 thousand tons in 2003/04 due to increased rapeseed production.

For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/

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