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Situation and Outlook - September 2003
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Foreign Developments
World production of oilseeds
is projected at 345.7 million tons in 2003/04, about 18 million tons higher than
the record set in 2002/03. U.S.
oilseed production is projected at 81.5 million tons, down 6.0 million tons from
the August forecast. Foreign
oilseed production is forecast at 264.2 million tons, unchanged from last month,
due to offsetting changes for several crops. World soybean production is projected at 201.0 million tons,
a 2.6 percent increase over the 2002/03 crop, but down 2.8 percent from August.
Rapeseed production is projected to increase 13 percent over the 2002/03
crop, while production of sunflowerseed and cottonseed are projected to increase
12 percent and 7 percent, respectively.
World oilseed trade is
forecast to reach 75.7 million tons in 2003/04 which is a 3.7 percent increase
over 2002/03, and up 1 percent from August.
With the exception of cottonseed, the growth in exports is widespread
across the oilseed complex with soybean exports up 2.2 percent, peanuts up 6.7
percent, sunflowerseed up 43.2 percent and rapeseed up 6.1 percent.
Exports of soybeans will dominate the oilseed trade at 64.7 million tons,
or 86 percent of the world oilseed exports.
While U.S. soybean exports are expected to fall 2.7 million tons from
2002/03 and down 1.64 million tons from the August forecast, South America will
increase exports, led by Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay, up 2.6 million,
1.1million, and 230 thousand tons, respectively.
China will continue to be the largest import market for soybeans at 19.0
million tons, up 0.5 million tons from the August estimate.
Other markets showing increases for soybean imports in 2003/04 include:
the EU, Taiwan, Indonesia, Mexico, and the Middle East/North Africa region. The significant increase in sunflowerseed exports in 2003/04
is in response to the large bumper crops expected in Russia, Ukraine, and
Eastern Europe.
World oilmeal production is
projected to rise 5.6 percent above the current year to 198.2 million tons in
2003/04. Trade in meal is expected
to grow by 7.1 percent, led by a 2.9 million ton increase in soybean meal.
Because of the greater available supplies, Brazil, Argentina and India
are expected to increase exports of soybean meal by 12 percent, 5 percent and 67
percent, respectively. U.S soybean meal production in 2003/04 is forecast to total
33.6 million tons, down from 34.52 million tons in 2002/03 and 1.46 million tons
lower than the August forecast. Soybean
meal exports from the U.S. and the EU are expected to decline 13.8 percent and
3.8 percent, respectively from 2002/03.
Total world vegetable oil
production for 2003/04 is forecast at just over 100 million tons which is up 6.5
percent from the 94.4 million tons produced in 2002/03. This increase is led by
soybean oil, sunflowerseed oil, and palm oil production.
World vegetable oil consumption for 2003/04 is forecast to reach 99.2
million tons, which is a 4.7 percent increase over the current year.
This will be the first time that world vegetable oil production exceeds
its consumption since 2000/01. U.S
soybean oil production is forecast to total 7.95 million tons in 2003/04, down
from 8.34 million tons produced in 2002/03, and down 360,000 from the August
forecast. .
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
September 5, 2003 | Argentina | Oilseeds and Products Exports for June 2003
September 5, 2003 | Russian Federation | Oilseeds and Products Update: September
August 23, 2003 | Germany | Crop Estimate for Rapeseed and Sunflower
August 21, 2003 | Philippines | Coconut Products Exports: May
September 3, 2003 | Malaysia | Oilseeds and Products Update: August