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Situation and Outlook - August 2003
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Foreign Developments
World production of oilseeds
is expected to reach 351.7 million tons in 2003/2004, 23.8 million tons higher
than the record set in 2002/2003. Just
under half of the increase is due to soybeans, which are up 11.2 million tons.
Despite a drop in U.S. soybean production of 625 thousand tons from last
month’s estimate, U.S. production is expected to be 3.6 million tons higher
than last year. Much of the
production growth in soybeans comes from expected higher yields in the U.S. and
India, as well as more planted area in South America.
World exports of oilseeds
are expected to grow 3.9 percent to 74.9 million tons in 2003/2004, 2.8 million
tons higher than in 2002/2003. Exports
of soybeans are forecast to again dominate oilseed trade at 64.4 million tons,
or 86 percent of the total, and 1.8 million tons higher than 2002/2003.
U.S. exports of soybeans are projected to decline 1.1 million tons in
2003/2004 to 27.2 million tons, which is 273 thousand tons higher than July’s
estimate. This decline will be more
than offset by an increase in exports of nearly 2.1 million tons from Brazil,
350 thousand tons from Argentina, and 230 thousand tons from Paraguay.
China is expected to raise imports of soybeans 300 thousand tons to 18.5
million, while imports by the EU should increase just under 1 million tons to
18.6, replacing China as the largest soybean importer.
The large EU increase in soybean imports and crush are due to weather
related declines in their domestic grains production.
Rapeseed and sunflowerseed
exports are expected to rise .53 million tons and .47 million tons respectively.
Rapeseed exports are set to rise 12 percent due to increases in Canadian
exports that will more than offset export declines in the EU and Eastern Europe
due to drought. Exports of
sunflowerseed are expected to rise 21 percent due to higher production in Russia
and the Ukraine.
World oilmeal production is
expected to rise 6 percent to nearly 200 million tons in 2003/2004.
Increases are led by a 7.4 million ton rise in soybean meal, followed by
increases of 1.6 million tons and 1.2 million tons in rapeseed meal and
cottonseed meal respectively. Oilmeal exports are slated to rise 8 percent to just over 60
million tons. Of the total increase
of 4.4 million tons, soybean increases of 3.5 million tons represent about 80
percent of the gain, and highlight the world’s growing dependence on soybean
meal as source of protein in feed. Growth
in world soybean meal use is expected to match last year’s level of 4.7
percent, with most of the increase in China, the EU and Latin America.
World vegetable oil
production is expected to rise 6 percent to just over 100 million tons.
This increase is led by soybean oil, palm oil, and notable increases in
rapeseed oil, sunflowerseed oil, and olive oil production.
This increase is just above the rise in consumption of 5 percent, and
only marginally increases ending stocks to 7.3 million tons from an unusually
low 6.8 million tons in 2002/2003. This
will be the first time in the last 3 years that production exceeds consumption.
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
July 25, 2003 | Japan | Oilseeds and Products Annual
July 18, 2003 | Argentina | Oilseeds and Products Exports for May 2003
July 31, 2003 | Malaysia | Monthly Palm Oil Monthly Exports: March
July 31, 2003 | Malaysia | Soybean and Meal Monthly Imports: March
August 1, 2003 | European Union | Oilseeds and Products Annual
August 11, 2003 | Malaysia | Oilseeds and Products Update: July