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Situation and Outlook - March 2003
Global oilseed exports for
2002/03 are projected at a record 74.3 million tons, up 958,000 tons over last
month’s estimate due to an 839,000-ton increase in soybean exports and minor
increases in exports of sunflowerseed and rapeseed. Global trade of protein meal is estimated at 62.9 million
tons, only slightly higher than last month’s estimate due to a 98,000-ton
increase in soybean meal exports. Likewise,
the estimate for 2002/03 global vegetable oil trade increased this month due to
increases in projected exports of soybean oil and coconut oil.
The changes to trade in the
soy complex stem mainly from a 1.5 million ton increase in Argentina’s soybean
production. As a result of this
increase, Argentina’s projected soybean exports increased 400,000 tons over
last month’s estimate to 9.7 million tons, its soybean meal exports increased
540,000 tons to 18.7 million tons, and its soybean oil exports increased 140,000
tons to 4.38 million tons. The
estimate for U.S. soybean exports was also raised this month to 26.1 million
tons due to the rapid export pace so far this year. Finally, China’s projected soybean imports were raised one
million tons this month to 16.0 million tons.
Other changes this month
include increases in rapeseed exports by the United States (75,000 tons), the
European Union (50,000 tons) and the Former Soviet Union (15,000 tons). The
increase in rapeseed exports is balanced by a 200,000-ton increase in
Pakistan’s projected rapeseed imports. Also,
estimated coconut oil exports are up 100,000 tons for the Philippines and 50,000
tons for Malaysia, bringing global coconut oil exports to nearly 2 million tons.
The U.S. season-average
price for soybeans is projected at $5.20 to $5.60 per bushel, a narrowing of the
range by $0.20 from last month. The
soybean meal price is up slightly over last month at $165 to $180 per short ton,
and the U.S. soybean oil price remains unchanged at 20.50 to 23.00 cents per
pound.
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Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Mar 5, 2003 | Guatemala | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Mar 11, 2003 | Korea, Republic of | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Feb 11, 2003 | Ukraine | Oilseeds and Products Annual