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Situation and Outlook - February 2003
Global oilseed exports for
2002/03 are projected at a record 73.3 million tons, up 664,000 tons over last
month’s estimate due to a 432,000-ton increase in soybean exports and a
237,000-ton increase in sunflowerseed exports.
Global trade of protein meal is also up from last month’s estimate,
with a 1.29 million-ton increase in soybean meal exports more than offsetting
minor decreases in cottonseed meal and sunflowerseed meal. Likewise, the estimate for 2002/03 global vegetable oil trade
increased this month due to increases in projected exports of soybean oil, palm
oil, and coconut oil.
The changes to trade in the
soy complex stem mainly from a two million ton increase in Brazil’s soybean
production. As a result of this
increase, Brazil’s projected soybean exports increased 400,000 tons over last
month’s estimate to 21.0 million tons, its soybean meal exports increased
900,000 tons to 14.3 million tons, and its soybean oil exports increased 125,000
tons to 2.425 million tons.
The major recipient of the
increased global soybean exports will be China, especially now that China has
announced it will begin to allow biotech soybeans grown in Brazil into the
country. As a result of this
announcement and the record pace of China’s soybean imports so far this
marketing year, the forecast for China’s 02/03 soybean imports has been raised
500,000 tons to 15 million tons.
Additional changes to
estimated trade in the soy complex this month include a 400,000-ton decrease in
Argentina’s soybean exports, a 430,000-ton increase in the European Union’s
soybean imports, and decreases in soybean imports by Taiwan, the Former Soviet
Union, the Middle East, Africa, and Mexico that offset the increase in imports
by the EU. This month’s estimate
for 02/03 soybean meal trade shows increases in exports from Brazil (900,000
tons) and Argentina (400,000 tons) complemented by increases in imports by the
EU (595,000 tons) and countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America.
This months’s major changes to the 02/03 soybean oil estimate include a
145,000-ton increase to Brazil’s exports, a 72,000-ton increase to
Argentina’s exports, and a 100,000-ton increase to China’s imports.
In fact, the 900,000-ton projection for China’s 02/03 soybean oil
imports is higher than China’s soybean oil imports for any one year since
1998/99 and reflects China’s increasing demand for vegetable oil as well as
lower tariffs in line with China’s World Trade Organization obligations.
Other changes this month
include increases to Russia’s and Ukraine’s sunflowerseed exports (200,000
tons and 100,000 tons respectively) with a complementary 210,000-ton increase in
the EU’s sunflowerseed imports. Also,
the estimate for 02/03 U.S. coconut oil imports increased 106,000 tons this
month to 456,000 tons. Finally, a
295,000 ton increase in Hong Kong’s palm oil exports and a corresponding
increase in China’s palm oil imports account for an increase in unreported trade between the two countries.
Return to Oilseeds Table of Contents Page
Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Feb 5, 2003 | Colombia | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Feb 5, 2003 | Morocco | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Feb 5, 2003 | India | Oilseeds and Products February Update
Jan 17, 2003 | Malaysia | Soybean and Meal Monthly Imports: Sep 2002
Jan 24, 2003 | Philippines | Copra and Copra Products PSD Update