Situation and Outlook - January 2003
Global oilseed exports for
2002/03 are projected at a record 72.7 million tons, up 630,000 tons over last
month’s estimate due to an increase in U.S. soybean exports as well as minor
increases in exports of U.S. cottonseed and Eastern European sunflowerseed.
Global trade of protein meal is up slightly from last month’s estimate,
with minor increases in soybean meal, sunflowerseed meal, and fish meal
offsetting a slight decrease in cottonseed meal.
Likewise, the estimate for 2002/03 global vegetable oil trade increased
slightly this month due mainly to a 109,000-ton increase in projected soybean
oil exports by Argentina.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2002/03 is estimated at 83.5 million tons, up
from last month’s estimate due to an increase in soybean production of 1.1
million tons tons. Despite the
increase in U.S. soybean production, U.S. soybean crush prospects are lowered
136,000 tons this month due to reduced prospects for soybean meal exports and
domestic consumption. U.S. soybean
meal exports are projected at 5.4 million tons, down 182,000 tons from last
month’s estimate. The estimate
for U.S. soybean oil exports remains the same this month.
Other major changes this month include a 820,000-ton increase in U.S. soybean
exports and an increase in Chinese soybean imports of 500,000 tons due to
China’s rapid pace of soybean imports so far this marketing year.
Argentina’s soybean crush estimate increased this month to a record 23
million tons due to an increase in soybean production.
Correspondingly, Argentina’s soybean meal and oil exports increased
this month as well.
The estimate for global oilseed ending stocks increased this month to 33.8
million tons, a result of increasing soybean stocks in the U.S., Brazil, and
Argentina. The global stocks
estimates for protein meal and vegetable oil also increased slightly this month
due to increases in those same three countries.
The U.S. season-average price for soybeans is projected at $5.10 to $5.80 per
bushel, and the soybean meal price remained unchanged $160 to $180 per short
ton. The U.S. soybean oil price is raised slightly to 20.5 to 23.0
cents per pound.
Oilseeds Table of Contents Page
For additional information
pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments
within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports
are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These
reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe
Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to
the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Dec 10, 2002 | India | GOI Notifies Revised Crude Degummed
Soybean Oil Tariff Values
14, 2002 | Algeria | Oilseeds and Products Annual
30, 2002 | Chile | Fishmeal and Fishoil Exports
Jan 2, 2003 | Jamaica & Dep | Oilseeds and Products
Jan 7, 2003 | European Union | European Oilseed Alliance Complaint