Situation and Outlook - January 2003

Global oilseed exports for 2002/03 are projected at a record 72.7 million tons, up 630,000 tons over last month’s estimate due to an increase in U.S. soybean exports as well as minor increases in exports of U.S. cottonseed and Eastern European sunflowerseed.  Global trade of protein meal is up slightly from last month’s estimate, with minor increases in soybean meal, sunflowerseed meal, and fish meal offsetting a slight decrease in cottonseed meal.  Likewise, the estimate for 2002/03 global vegetable oil trade increased slightly this month due mainly to a 109,000-ton increase in projected soybean oil exports by Argentina. 

  Total U.S. oilseed production for 2002/03 is estimated at 83.5 million tons, up from last month’s estimate due to an increase in soybean production of 1.1 million tons tons.  Despite the increase in U.S. soybean production, U.S. soybean crush prospects are lowered 136,000 tons this month due to reduced prospects for soybean meal exports and domestic consumption.  U.S. soybean meal exports are projected at 5.4 million tons, down 182,000 tons from last month’s estimate.  The estimate for U.S. soybean oil exports remains the same this month. 

  Other major changes this month include a 820,000-ton increase in U.S. soybean exports and an increase in Chinese soybean imports of 500,000 tons due to China’s rapid pace of soybean imports so far this marketing year.  Argentina’s soybean crush estimate increased this month to a record 23 million tons due to an increase in soybean production.  Correspondingly, Argentina’s soybean meal and oil exports increased this month as well. 

  The estimate for global oilseed ending stocks increased this month to 33.8 million tons, a result of increasing soybean stocks in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina.  The global stocks estimates for protein meal and vegetable oil also increased slightly this month due to increases in those same three countries.

  The U.S. season-average price for soybeans is projected at $5.10 to $5.80 per bushel, and the soybean meal price remained unchanged $160 to $180 per short ton.  The U.S. soybean oil price is raised slightly to 20.5 to 23.0 cents per pound.

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Foreign Developments

For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/

Dec 10, 2002 | India | GOI Notifies Revised Crude Degummed Soybean Oil Tariff Values 

Dec 14, 2002 | Algeria | Oilseeds and Products Annual

Dec 30, 2002 | Chile | Fishmeal and Fishoil Exports

Jan 2, 2003 | Jamaica & Dep | Oilseeds and Products Annual

Jan 7, 2003 | European Union | European Oilseed Alliance Complaint