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Situation and Outlook - November 2002
World oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected to total
321.7 million tons, an upward revision of 3.8 million tons from last month.
Most of the increase is due to higher expected soybean production.
Argentina, Brazil, the U.S., and China are up 1.5 million tons, 1 million
tons, 980,000 tons, and 800,000 tons respectively.
The increase in South American production is due to a rise in area
harvested, as well as higher yields. Increased
output in China is due to an upward revision in area, while better yields
explain the U.S. increase. Severe
drought prompted a 200,000 ton reduction in Australia’s rapeseed production
estimate to 800,000 tons. U.S.
cottonseed and peanut production is also expected to decline 76,000 and 110,000
tons, respectively.
Worldwide exports of oilseeds were revised slightly higher
this month, with soybeans rising nearly 480,000 tons, which more than offset the
183,000 ton drop in exports of rapeseed.
Global protein meal production was revised up this month by
only 288,000 tons, with 265,000 tons of this increase going to exports.
Production estimates for major vegetable oils also rose slightly this
month to 91.8 million tons, with soybean oil production rising 215,000 tons,
more than offsetting declines in sunflower seed oil of 37,000 tons and rapeseed
oil of 125,000 tons.
World exports of edible oils rose 392,000 tons to 38
million tons, led by increases in palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil, up
200,000 tons, 140,000 tons, and 53,000 tons respectively.
The higher world oilseed production estimate this month will only partially be offset by greater utilization rates. As a result, ending stocks for soybeans are revised up 3.6 million tons, to 29.7 million tons. Most of this increase is expected in Argentine and Brazilian stocks, which are now expected to reach a combined 19.7 million tons, up 3.2 million from last month’s estimates. The stock increase was mainly due to a downward revision of last year’s exports from South America coupled with an increase in their estimated production. This, in combination with higher production expected in 2002/03 led to the growth in ending stocks. This increase in stocks helped to push the U.S. season average soybean price range down 10 cents to $4.95 - $5.85 per bushel.
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Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Nov 1, 2002 | India | Oilseeds and Products Update - November
Oct 24, 2002 | Germany | Bio-diesel in Germany - an Overview
Oct 24, 2002 | Argentina | Oilseeds and Products November Update
Oct 28, 2002 | Indonesia | Indonesia: An Additional War Risk Zone
Oct 30, 2002 | Philippines | Oilseeds and Products Update - Coconut Products Exports - July 2002
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