FAS Online Logo Return to the FAS Home Page
spacer
FAS logo II

Situation and Outlook - October 2002

The forecast for world oilseed production was reduced by almost 1.2 million tons in October to 317.9 million tons. While copra production remained unchanged, the production forecast for every other oilseed fell. Projected production of rapeseed, soybeans and peanuts were reduced by 360, 340, and 331 thousand tons, respectively.  U.S. soybean production in 2002/03 is expected to reach 72.2 million tons, down 55 thousand tons from last month, and down from 78.7 million tons last year.  Most of the decline in world oilseed production is accounted for by reductions of 250 thousand tons in Canadian soybean production, 250 thousand tons in Chinese peanut production, and lower European rapeseed production.

Weaker than expected South American soybean exports in the last several months of the marketing year led to a reduction of 600 thousand tons in estimated 2001/02 soybean exports, split evenly between Brazil and Argentina.  Forecast 2002/03 world soybean exports were reduced by 100 thousand tons due to a cut in projected Brazilian exports.  Projected exports for other oilseeds are almost unchanged.  

Forecast 2001/02 world soybean ending stocks rose by 1.1 million tons primarily due to lower South American exports (600 thousand tons) and a larger final stocks estimate for the United States.  The increase in 2002/03 ending stocks of 760 thousand tons, to 26.1 million, is due to higher beginning stocks.

Higher than expected soy meal consumption in Brazil in 2001/02, and larger than expected crush and soy meal exports in Brazil and Argentina, led to upward revisions in 2002/03 South American crush and soy meal export projections.  Weaker than expected Brazilian soy oil exports over the past several months led to a reduction of 150 thousand tons in 2001/02 soy oil exports.  A reduction of 45 thousand tons in U.S. 2002/03 soy oil exports was more than offset by an increase of 117 thousand tons in South American soy oil exports. 

Return to Oilseeds Table of Contents Page

Foreign Developments

For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/

Oct 1, 2002 | India | Oilseeds and Products Update - October

Oct 8, 2002 | Argentina | Oilseeds and Products: Exports for July

Sept 25, 2002 | Vietnam | Oilseeds and Products: Peanut Update

Sept 30, 2002 | Philippines | Oilseeds and Products Update - Coconut Products Exports - June 2002

spacer

spacer
Last modified: Tuesday, September 14, 2004