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Situation and Outlook - September 2002
The global trade forecast for 2002/03 was reduced 1.4 million tons this month to 71.7 million tons in response to lowered soybean and rapeseed export forecasts. World soybean exports for 2002/03 declined 714,000 tons from last month, despite an increase in the U.S. soybean export forecast, as Brazil and Argentina’s combined exports were reduced 1.5 million tons. The 2002/03 world trade forecast for rapeseed was reduced 467,000 tons in response to a 1.3- million-ton decline in world production.
World oilseed production in 2002/03 is expected to reach 319 million tons, 4.2 million tons below the 2001/02 estimate. The 2002/03 world soybean production forecast increased 1.5 million tons this month, lead by a 1-million-ton increase in Argentina’s production and a 747,000 ton increase in U.S. soybean production. The sunflowerseed production forecast for 2002/03 increased 445,000 tons with Russia, Ukraine and Hungary leading the way. Dry weather in Canada and Australia cut yields drastically this year resulting in a reduced rapeseed production forecast for 2002/03 this month.
Global ending stocks for 2002/03 saw large changes this month, with an increase of over 2.3 million tons from the previous month’s forecast. Total oilseed ending stocks are now forecast to reach 28.6 million tons, 6.1 million tons below the 2001/02 levels. Almost the entire increase in ending stocks for 2002/03 were seen in soybeans, which are now forecast at 25.3 million tons. U.S. soybean ending stocks were increased 156,000 tons due to the better crop prospects. Ending stocks were also increased in Brazil (1.1 million tons) and Argentina (1.2 million tons) due to reduced export prospects for those two countries.
World oilseed crush for 2002/03 was reduced 2 million tons to 267 million tons. The lower rapeseed production forecast resulted in reduced rapeseed crush. Total rapeseed crush was reduced 1 million tons to 30.9 million tons in 2002/03. World peanut crush prospects for 2002/03 were also reduced this month to 14.9 million tons, 709,000 tons below last month’s forecast.
Protein meal trade for 2002/03 was nearly unchanged this month as lower rapeseed and peanut meal exports were offset by increases in soybean and fishmeal exports. Forecast production of protein meals was down nearly 900,000 tons this month due to smaller peanut, rapeseed and soybean meal production. Forecast protein meal consumption for the period was also reduced in response to the lower supply situation.
World vegetable oil consumption for 2002/03 is forecast to reach 92.2 million tons, up slightly more than 1 percent from current year expectations. This increase reflects a slowing in demand growth due to higher oil prices resulting from tighter supplies.
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Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Sept 10, 2002 | Turkey | Sunflowerseed and Products Update
Sept 9, 2002 | Argentina | Oilseeds and Products: Exports for June
Sept 9, 2002 | Argentina | Oilseeds and Products: September Update
Sept 9, 2002 | India | Oilseeds Report
Sept 6, 2002 | India | Oilseeds and Products Update - September
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