Situation and Outlook - August 2002
oilseed production in 2002/03 is expected to reach only 319.9 million tons, 3.5
million tons lower than in 2001/02, and 8.6 million tons lower than last
month’s estimate. If realized,
this will be the first year-to-year decline in 7 years. Much of the decrease is a result of lower U.S. oilseed
production. U.S. soybean production
is forecast to decline to 71.5 million tons in 2002/03, down 9 percent from last
year, due to weather related yield losses.
Dry weather is also expected to reduce yields of rapeseed in Canada and
Australia. India’s output of
soybeans, peanuts, and cottonseed is expected to decline, as the monsoon has not
provided sufficient rain in the oilseed growing areas.
Brazil’s output of soybeans is expected to rise 1 million tons in
response to higher soybean prices and a weaker domestic currency.
The decline in high oil bearing oilseeds and the weak growth of palm oil
production is expected to lead to an even tighter oil market next year, with
India and China increasing oil imports by 660 and 625 thousand tons
respectively. Oil stocks are
expected to drop to 6.6 million tons, 0.5 million tons lower than last month’s
estimate, and 0.6 million from last year. This
will be the lowest level since 1997/1998.
World oilseed trade is forecast to reach 73.1 million tons in 2002/03, a 4-percent increase over 2001/02. The growth in soybean exports, up nearly 7 percent, and sunflowerseed exports, 5 percent higher than last year, more than offset declines in virtually every other oilseed. While U.S. soybean exports are expected to fall 6.5 million tons, South America will increase exports, led by Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, up 6 million, 3.6 million, and 0.6 million tons respectively. As expected, China will continue to be the largest import market for soybeans at 14 million tons. Other markets showing increases for 2002/03 include the EU, Mexico, and the Middle East/North Africa region. World ending stocks of soybeans are expected to drop 24 percent to 22.9 million tons in 2002/2003 as consumption exceeds production. With the exception of a slight increase for palm kernel, the ending stocks of all oilseeds are forecast to drop a combined 7.8 million tons, which represents a significant 23 percent decline worldwide.
Trade in meal is expected to grow a modest 2.2 percent, led by a 1.4-million-ton increase in soybean meal along with sunflowerseed meal, and fish meal. Because of the greater available supplies, Brazil and Argentina are expected to increase exports of soybean meal by 16 and 9 percent, respectively. Soybean meal exports from the U.S. are forecast to decline by 12 percent to 6.1 million tons in response to tighter soybean supplies and increased competition. World trade in sunflowerseed meal is expected to increase 6 percent to 2.7 million tons; with most of the increased trade coming from Argentina, Eastern Europe and Russia. Fish meal is expected to partially recover next year with exports up 177 thousand tons to 3.4 million tons. Peru’s exports of 1.75 million tons dominate the trade, and more than offset minor reductions elsewhere.
World vegetable oil consumption for 2002/03 is forecast to reach 92.7 million tons, which is a modest 1.5 percent rise over the current year. This slowdown in demand growth reflects significantly higher oil prices, due to moderate growth in supply. The net decrease in production of high oil content oilseeds coupled with below trend growth in palm oil production has lead to a tightening of the availability of edible oils.
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For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
July 19, 2002 | Thailand | Oilseeds and Products Annual
July 22, 2002 | Uzbekistan | Oilseeds and Products Annual
July 29, 2002 | Israel | Oilseeds and Products Annual
July 31, 2002 | France | French Rapeseed Production up 17%
July 31, 2002 | Colombia | Colombia Applies Safeguard Duty on Refined Oil
August 2, 2002 | India | Oilseeds and Products Update - July