Situation and Outlook - July 2002
production in 2002/03 is expected to reach a record 328.5 million tons, 5
million tons higher than in 2001/02. Most
of the increase is a result of gains in South American soybean production.
U.S. soybean production is forecast to decline to 77.8 million tons in
2002/03, down 1 percent from last year. Most
other oilseed production in 2002/03 is expected to decline with the exception of
sunflowerseed where production increases forecast for Argentina and Russia are
expected to boost world production 8 percent to 22.9 million tons.
World oilseed trade
is forecast to reach 73.4 million tons in 2002/03, a 4-percent increase over
2001/02. The soybean sector leads
this growth, with China=s
soybean imports projected to rise 27 percent in the coming year.
Growing demand for poultry feed in China, plus a need to rebuild stocks
following last year=s disruption in trade are expected to contribute to the growth in
imports. Other markets showing
increases for 2002/03 include the EU, Mexico, and the Middle East/North Africa
region. U.S. soybean exports in MY
2002/03 are forecast to decline 8 percent, while Brazil=s
and Argentina=s soybean exports are forecast to rise by 24 and 12 percent,
respectively. Large carryin stocks
from 2001/02 coupled with expanding production will contribute to the increase
in South American exports and provide increased competition for U.S. soybeans.
Ending stocks of soybeans in Brazil are projected to increase by 15
percent to over 10 million tons, while the ending stocks in the United States and
Argentina are forecast to decline.
trade is forecast to increase in 2002/03, as production in major producing
countries improves. While U.S.
production is forecast to decline 6 percent, increases in Eastern Europe,
Argentina and Russia will more than compensate.
World rapeseed exports are projected to increase only slightly to 7.6
million tons, with Canada, and the EU accounting for most of the increase.
Exports by Eastern Europe and Australia are expected to decline in
2002/03 in response to lower production. World
cottonseed production is projected to decline to 33.9 million tons; a 7-percent
decline from last year. As a result, trade is
expected to decline 11 percent.
The projected 3
percent increase in world oilseed meal trade to 61.2 million tons is supported
by increases in the exports of soybean meal, sunflowerseed meal, fish meal, and
palm kernel meal. Because of the
increased available supplies, Brazil and Argentina are expected to increase
their exports of soybean meal by 11 and 8 percent, respectively.
Soybean meal exports from the U.S. are forecast to decline by 3 percent
to 6.7 million tons in response to tighter soybean supplies and increased
competition. World trade in
sunflowerseed meal is expected to increase 6 percent to 2.6 million tons; with
the majority of the increased trade coming from Argentina, Eastern Europe and
World vegetable oil
consumption for 2002/03 is forecast to reach a record 93.3 million tons,
representing a two percent rate of growth.
The largest increases in absolute terms are for soybean oil and palm oil,
with additional increases expected in sunflowerseed, palm kernel, and peanut oil
Return to Oilseeds Table of Contents Page
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
July 5, 2002 | Norway | Oilseeds and Products Annual
June 19, 2002 | South Africa | Oilseeds and Products Annual
June 26, 2002 | Tunisia | Oilseeds and Products Annual
June 14, 2002 | France | Marginal Impact of Rotational Subsidy in 2002
June 24, 2002 | Argentina | Exports for March