Situation and Outlook - June 2002
The world oilseed export forecast for 2001/02 rose 463,000 tons this month to 70.8 million tons. The increases were led by gains in rapeseed and soybeans, up 151,000 and 143,000 tons respectively. Most of the increase in soybean exports accrued to the U.S., which was up 400,000 tons as a result of a slowdown in exports from Brazil and Argentina, which were down 300,000 and 150,000 tons respectively. The continuing economic upheaval in Argentina, and slow early season exports from Brazil, where farmers withheld soybeans from the market on expectations of higher prices, are the reasons for their respective declines. Exports of other oilseeds also increased, with cottonseed up 96,000 tons, sunflowerseed up 43,000 tons, and peanuts, 30,000 tons higher.
World ending stocks of all oilseeds estimated by USDA increased again this month by nearly 300,000 tons to 33.4 million. The overall increase in ending stocks is mainly attributable to increased rapeseed stocks in Canada and Europe. The forecast for most other oilseed ending stocks showed only minor changes.
The world oilseed crush forecast declined to 265.3 million tons, down 961,000 tons from last month=s estimate. Leading the decline in oilseed crush is the EU where soybean crush for 2001/02 was reduced 868,000 tons this month to 18.3 million tons. Despite the lower crush this month for the EU, soybean crush there is still expected to increase nearly 1.3 million tons in 2001/02, and represents growth of 7.6 percent over 2000/01. Estimates of rapeseed crush are down 267,000 tons this month. Canadian rapeseed crush, declined by 190,000 tons due to reduced production.
The total oilseed meal export forecast for 2001/02 increased 362,000 tons this month to 59.3 million tons. Soybean meal exports were raised 188,000 tons, cottonseed meal exports were increased 80,000 tons, and sunflowerseed meal exports were up 79,000 tons this month, with smaller increases in peanut and palm kernel meal.The vegetable oil production forecast for 2001/02 fell 112,000 tons this month to 91.3 million tons. Forecast production of olive oil and sunflowerseed oil rose 178,000 tons and 22,000 tons respectively, but were more than offset by declines of 134,000 tons for soybean oil, 130,000 tons for rapeseed oil, and 33,000 tons for peanut oil. Exports of vegetable oils rose 367,000 tons to 36.3 million, led by olive oil and rapeseed oil, up 102,000 tons and 110,000 tons respectively.
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For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
June 7, 2002 | France | Oilseeds and Products Annual
June 3, 2002 | Germany | Oilseeds and Products Annual
May 31, 2002 | India | Oilseeds and Products Annual
May 24, 2002 | China | Oilseeds Update
May 21, 2002 | Kenya | Kenya Oilseeds Report