Situation and Outlook - May 2002

The world oilseed export forecast for 2001/02 is reduced 880,000 tons this month to 70.4 million tons.  This decline is largely due to a 944,000-ton reduction in the world soybean export forecast. Most of the decline is a result of reduced trade volume with China resulting from the implementation of China’s biotech regulations.  China’s soybean import forecast was reduced this month to 11.0 million tons, down 17 percent from 2000/01.  Exports for both Argentina and Brazil were lowered this month in response to the slow start in sales in 2002.  Paraguay’s soybean export forecast was also reduced this month, spurred partly by a lower production estimate for 2002.  Other changes this month include a 66,000-ton reduction in the world copra export forecast for 2001/02, as well as increases in sunflowerseed exports, forecast at 2.0 million tons, and rapeseed exports, forecast at 7.8 million tons.  U.S. export forecasts remain nearly unchanged this month for 2001/02.  

World soybean ending stocks estimates by USDA increased again this month.  The ending stocks for 2001/02 are estimated at 29.5 million tons, up 14,000 tons from April.  The increase in ending stocks is mainly attributed to increased stocks in Brazil and Argentina as a result of reduced exports to China.  The forecast for U.S. soybean ending stocks is down 136,000 tons this month to 7.1 million tons.

The world oilseed crush forecast declined to 266.2 million tons, down 432,000 tons from last month=s estimate.  Leading the decline in oilseed crush is China where soybean crush for 2001/02 was reduced 500,000 tons this month to 20.6 million tons.  Despite the lower crush this month for China, soybean crush in China is still expected to increase over 2000/01 by 9 percent.  Estimates of Canadian rapeseed crush are down 304,000 tons due to more than a 2-million-ton drop in Canadian rapeseed production in 2001.  

The total oilseed meal export forecast for 2001/02 decreased slightly this month to 58.9 million tons.  Rapeseed meal exports declined over 300,000 tons, fishmeal exports were reduced 266,000 tons, and copra meal exports declined 46,000 tons this month.  These decreases in exports were offset by increases in export forecasts for the remaining oilseed meals, principally soybean and cottonseed meal. 

  The vegetable oil production forecast for 2001/02 is increased 664,000 tons this month to 91.4 million tons.  Increased palm oil production, mainly for Indonesia, accounted for most of the increase this month.  Vegetable oil export forecasts are up almost 200,000 tons from last month=s figure.  Largely responsible for this jump is a 450,000-ton increase in palm oil exports.  Palm oil export estimates are increased for both Malaysia and Indonesia and are in response to increased production and world demand.

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Foreign Developments

For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/

May 6, 2002 | Indonesia | Oilseeds and Products Annual

April 15 2002 | Mexico | Oilseeds and Products Annual

April 16 2002 | Japan | Oilseeds and Products Annual

May 7 2002 | Egypt | Oilseeds and Products Annual

April 26 2002 | Poland | Oilseeds and Products Annual

April 8 2002 | France | Oilseeds and Products Annual

Last modified: Tuesday, September 14, 2004