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Situation and Outlook - April 2002
USDA estimates world oilseed exports to reach 71.24 million tons in MY 2001/02, down 810,000 tons from last month’s estimate and down 689,000 tons from 2001/02. USDA reduced its total oilseed import estimate for 2001/02 by 978,000 tons to 71.38 million tons, due to a one million ton reduction in China’s soybean imports. Because of the lingering confusion and delays created by China’s biotech regulations, this is the third month in a row that China’s soybean import estimate, now at 12 million tons, has been reduced. To account for the loss of imports, USDA reduced Brazil’s soybean exports by 500,000 tons to 17.40 million tons and Argentina’s soybean exports by 350,000 tons to 8.00 million tons. The soybean export estimate for the United States remained constant this month at a record 27.76 million tons, as reduced US exports to China had already been taken into consideration.
Although total oilseed trade is declining, the global oilseed production estimate increased this month to 324.96 million tons, up 286,000 tons from last month’s estimate and up 11.84 million tons from 2000/01. Responsible for the increase in this month’s estimate is a 750,000-ton increase to Argentina’s soybean production, which is partially offset by reduced production estimates for peanuts, sunflowerseed, rapeseed, and palm kernel.
USDA increased its global soybean ending stocks estimate for 2001/02 this month by 686,000 tons to 29.43 million tons, due to increases in ending stocks in Brazil and Argentina. These increases are a direct result of reduced exports to China by the two South American countries.
The total oilmeal production estimate for 2001/02 decreased this month by 408,000 tons to 184.11 million tons. A 405,000 ton reduction in China’s soybean meal production, following reduced imports by the Asian giant, accounts for this decrease.
This month’s 2001/02 vegetable oil production estimate decreased 366,000 tons from last month’s figure. Largely responsible for the decline is a 300,000-ton reduction in Malaysian palm oil production as well as reduced global sunflowerseed oil and rapeseed oil production. Offsetting these reductions is a 100,000-ton increase in Argentine soybean oil production and minor increases in global coconut oil production. The estimate for total vegetable oil exports remained fairly constant this month at 35.68 million tons, with only minor changes in soybean oil and palm oil trade estimates.
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Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
May 6, 2002 | Indonesia | Oilseeds and Products Annual
April 15 2002 | Mexico | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Apr 16 2002 | Japan | Oilseeds and Products Annual
May 7 2002 | Egypt | Oilseeds and Products Annual
April 26 2002 | Poland | Oilseeds and Products Annual
April 8 2002 | France | Oilseeds and Products Annual
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